Report: Israel Knew About Hamas Plans a Year in Advance; Israeli, US Officials React

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Facts

  • US and Israeli officials this week pledged to investigate the findings of a New York Times report in which it was alleged that Israeli intelligence officials were aware more than a year in advance that Hamas had been planning a major attack against Israel.1
  • According to the report published late last week, Israeli officials obtained a 40-page Hamas battle plan — code-named 'Jericho Wall' by Israeli authorities — detailing the group's plans for an attack into southern Israel. The document reportedly described a methodical assault designed to break through the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and towns, and storm key military bases — a plan reflected quite precisely in Hamas's attack on Oct. 7.2
  • The Times reported that the document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders. However, officials reportedly determined that an attack of that scale and ambition was beyond Hamas's capabilities. 'It is unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political leaders [also] saw the document' the Times added.2
  • Reacting to the report, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer said that details of Israel's intelligence failures leading up to Oct. 7 would be investigated once the war was over. 'All of these questions, we're going to have to get to the bottom of it after the war,' he said. Israel has said that its war goals are to destroy Hamas and free the roughly 140 Israeli hostages still held captive in the Gaza Strip.1
  • Meanwhile, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Sunday that 'our intelligence community is taking a look' into the report, adding: 'They have no indications that we, the United States intelligence community, had any knowledge of that [Hamas planning] document beforehand or any visibility into it.' He further expressed confidence in Israel's ability to investigate and added that the priority for the US was 'making sure that Israel has what it needs to go after Hamas leadership.'1
  • According to the latest figures from Gaza's health ministry on Monday, Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip have now left almost 16K people dead, the majority of whom were women and children, officials said.3

Sources: 1ABC News, 2The New York Times and 3Anadolu Agency.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The New York Times. Hamas's brutal Oct. 7 surprise attack laid bare the structural failures of Israel's security and intelligence apparatuses. These failures included Israeli domestic politics overshadowing security concerns, the security establishment completely misjudging Hamas' capabilities and military posture, and, lastly, a failure to imagine such an attack was possible. Israel was so busy with internal squabbles, as well as focusing intelligence resources toward Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, that it neglected Hamas' lethal potential to butcher Israelis.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by TruthOut. Though it may sound conspiratorial, it seems that Israel has exploited Hamas' Oct. 7 attack to ethnically cleanse even more Palestinians from their land. Though some in Israel's security establishment view Oct. 7 as an intelligence oversight, many others see it as an opportunity to take another step in annihilating Palestinian aspirations for freedom. Israel, fully aided by the US, is on the verge of destroying Gaza, something it has long-desired and can now justify to the international community.
  • Narrative C, as provided by MSNBC. Ultimately, the primary blame for Oct. 7 and the many intelligence failures that occurred before it falls on Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist allies, who divided the country via his controversial domestic policies. Israel would never have allowed the events of Oct. 7 to proceed if they'd realized the reality of the threat posed by Hamas, but Israeli forces who should have been defending southern communities were deployed to the West Bank to protect extremist settlers with whom Netanyahu had formed a political alliance. Netanyahu has blood on his hands, and once the war ends, he will likely be replaced.

Predictions