Report: Extreme Poverty Could be Eradicated by 2050

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Facts

• According to a new report from the Center for Global Development (CGD), titled Scenarios for Future Global Growth to 2050, extreme global poverty could be eradicated by 2050.¹
• The GCD’s forecast — which defines those in extreme poverty as anyone living on less than $2.15 a day – predicts the share of the world population experiencing it will fall from about 8% in 2022 to below 2% by 2050. In Africa, where the proportion of extreme poverty is highest, it is set to fall from 29% to 7%.²
• The paper added that “low-income countries” may disappear as a group by 2050, by which point 67% of the world will be living on more than $10 per day compared to the current 42%.³
• Africa has recently seen rising investment, especially from China, as part of its Belt and Road initiative. According to the International Institute of Sustainable Development, China invested nearly $3B in Africa in 2020.³
• The report maintains that there is still considerable uncertainty about the global economy’s future and that there are many events that could plausibly alter forecasts — the authors specifically cite the risk that demographic change could act as a drag on growth for wealthier countries.²
• While the COVID pandemic reversed significant progress made towards eradicating extreme poverty, the damage is not believed to have irreversibly altered the overall trajectory.²

Sources: ¹Forbes, ²Guardian and ³Yahoo Finance.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Yahoo Finance. Eradicating extreme poverty is not only theoretically achievable — it is within our sights. With a holistic approach focused on equity, poverty across the globe can be greatly reduced. We have already seen a significant reduction in poverty rates and, with a justice-based effort, we can eradicate poverty for good.
• Narrative B, as provided by ZeroHedge. While the global community has done a great job of quantifiably reducing poverty levels, the work is just beginning. Extreme poverty is a very complex issue that is highly concentrated in regions that are difficult to project. There are so many confounding factors that it is challenging to envision extreme poverty ending any time soon.

Predictions