Report: Evidence Suggests Ukraine Responsible for Deadly Donetsk Strike

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Facts

• A New York Times investigation published on Monday concluded that the evidence 'strongly suggests' that Ukraine was responsible for a Sept. 6 attack on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk that killed at least 15 civilians — one of the deadliest attacks of this year.¹
• At the time of the strike, which hit a market and other businesses in the predominantly Russian-speaking region, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed 'Russian terrorists' for the attack. Most media also blamed the Kremlin without pointing to evidence for the allegation.²
• However, almost two weeks after the strike, the New York Times reported that the missile flew towards Kostiantynivka from a northwesterly direction in Ukrainian-held territory. This was verified by analyzing the crater as well as video footage of the strike, which showed people turning towards the sound and the traveling missile being reflected by the surfaces of two cars.¹
• Meanwhile, weapons experts spoken to by the publication said that fragments left behind by the missile were most consistent with a 9M38 missile, fired by the mobile Buk anti-aircraft vehicle that's used by both Russia and Ukraine. Witnesses said that they saw two missiles being fired from Druzhkivka in Ukrainian-held territory at roughly the same time as the hit in Kostiantynivka.¹
• The Times reported that it was unclear why Kostiantynivka was struck, but speculated that 'the attack appears to have been a tragic mishap.' It said that a missile may have veered off its intended course due to a variety of reasons including an electronic malfunction or a fin that was damaged upon release.¹
• The attack took place the same day that US Sec. of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv. He later announced a $1B aid package for Ukraine.³

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²Al arabiya english and ³Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska pravda. Russia was responsible for this heinous attack on Kostiantynivka that killed at least a dozen civilians and injured scores more. It's a further demonstration of Russia's use of terrorism against Ukraine.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by New York Times. An analysis of the evidence suggests that Ukraine was in fact responsible for the missile that struck Kostiantynivka. This was likely the result of an errant missile which veered off direction.

Predictions