Report: Elite Afghan Troops Face Threat of Return to Taliban

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Facts

  • Some 200 elite Afghan soldiers, trained and funded by the UK — who for years fought alongside the UK and other coalition forces against the Taliban — face imminent deportation from Pakistan to Afghanistan, where they'll likely face reprisals and ill-treatment, according to a BBC investigation. 1
  • Furthermore, a group of 32 former governors, prosecutors, and officials — who worked with the UK and US in Afghanistan's Helmand Province between 2006 and 2014 and fled to neighboring Pakistan after the Taliban returned to power in 2021 — reportedly face the same fate.2
  • Alongside the soldiers and ex-officials, an estimated 1.7M Afghans are believed to have crossed the border into Pakistan without the proper papers. According to the UN, the Pakistani government's subsequent crackdown on illegal immigration has already forced about 340K to return, while 1.3M are at risk of imminent deportation.3
  • According to the BBC, most soldiers and former officials had applied to the UK government's Afghan Relocations and Assistance Program, intended for people who worked alongside the UK or closely supported it. However, many have either been rejected or have yet to hear back after more than a year of waiting.1
  • Meanwhile, the UK government claims that it has relocated over 11K Afghans to Britain under the program as of June 30 and is considering more than 1.8K "complex applications" seeking asylum from Pakistan. 4

Sources: 1BBC News, 2Daily Mail, 3PBS NewsHour, and 4House of Commons Library.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Independent. Having promised these brave Afghans safe passage to the UK for their tireless work alongside the country, the UK has now failed to live up to its promise, leaving these people in harm's way. Unless this situation is rectified, this is a national disgrace for Britain.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by GOV.UK. The UK is doing all it can, and the move to relocate hundreds of Afghans, who worked for the British military and government, to the UK has been accelerated. The Afghan Relocations and Assistance Program, supported by Embassies and High Commissions, remains open to eligible applicants.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 50% chance that the US will reopen its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, by February 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.