Report: Deal on Northern Ireland Could be Struck Next Week

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Facts

  • According to UK sources, negotiations over the Northern Ireland protocol are reaching their final stages with a deal possible as early as next week. However, sources say that talks are still at a delicate stage with no guarantee of a final agreement.1
  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to speak to European leaders in the coming days ahead of a potential unveiling of a new Brexit deal. Under the new deal, goods traveling from the mainland UK to only Northern Ireland will not face physical customs checks.2
  • The current protocol has been opposed by unionists in Northern Ireland since its implementation in 2021, with most notably the Democratic Unionist Party — the largest unionist political party — refusing to form an assembly in protest against the current regulations.3
  • The new protocol will involve systems of 'red' and 'green' lanes for physical customs checks. One of the more sensitive areas of the agreement continues to involve the role of the European Court of Justice in Northern Ireland — a point that is expected to be presented differently by the EU and the UK.4
  • The new legislation would mean that the UK government will effectively drop the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill — which has been held back in Parliament due to expected difficulties in the House of Lords where there is no Conservative majority.5

Sources: 1Guardian, 2The telegraph, 3BBC News, 4Express.co.uk and 5Belfasttelegraph.co.uk.

Narratives

  • Left narrative, as provided by Inews.co.uk. A new Brexit compromise on Northern Ireland risks a Conservative party backlash that may open the door to the return of Boris Johnson. With the purpose of the latest leak a mystery, we may see arch-Brexiteers from the Tory party reconvene against Rishi Sunak and oppose any compromise between opposing groups.
  • Right narrative, as provided by The telegraph. The only thing that has consistently continued to stop a happy compromise between all parties is the EU's insistence on its right to govern British territory. A physical check on the Irish border is neither sensible nor fair, and peace over the matter will only appear when the idea that Northern Ireland is still partially under the EU's jurisdiction is finally dropped.

Predictions