Report: China's GDP Grows 5.3% in Q1 2024

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Facts

• According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, the PRC's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024.¹
• The country's stronger-than-expected growth comes after a 5.2% rise in 2023's fourth quarter, beating the forecast of 4.6% by a Reuters poll of analysts.²
• Compared to the previous quarter, the PRC's GDP grew 1.6%, coming in at ¥29.63T ($4.09T) in Q1. The data shows that retail sales rose 4.7% in the January-to-March period.³
• The Bureau said the Chinese economy got off to a 'good start,' with industrial output growing by 6.1% and agricultural production and services expanding by 3.8% and 5%, respectively.⁴
• However, the PRC's real estate sector exhibited little sign of recovery, with property investment falling by 9.5% year-on-year in the first quarter. Moreover, exports remained weaker in dollar terms.⁵
• Beijing has set a GDP growth target of about 5% for 2024. However, some economists estimate that China's economy would grow by 4.8%, reportedly due to challenges in Q3 and Q4.⁶

Sources: ¹Bloomberg, ²CNN, ³Chinadaily, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵TheFinancialTimes and ⁶South China Morning Post.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Chinadaily.com.cn. China's economy has grown faster than expected in the first three months of the year despite COVID, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the US-China trade war. Given the country's stronger-than-expected exports and manufacturing capital expenditure and several fiscal and monetary policy measures taking effect, the PRC's second-quarter GDP would accelerate to over 5.5%, consolidating the economic recovery in 2024.
• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Bloomberg. While China's growth has been stronger than anticipated, it's uneven. The world's second-largest economy is battling real estate crises, unemployment, deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and mounting government debt. Just this week alone, the blue-chip CSI300 Index tumbled 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite indexes fell 1%. Despite the 'promising' data, it's clear that momentum is waning in the Chinese economy.

Predictions