Report: Biden's Patience with Netanyahu 'Running Out'

Facts

• According to four anonymous officials, US Pres. Joe Biden is growing increasingly frustrated with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly due to his resistance to abide by US priorities — including his refusal to release Palestinian tax revenues and his unwillingness to seriously discuss post-war governance in Gaza.¹
• Over the weekend, Netanyahu vowed to continue the war until 'total victory,' which he has defined as dismantling Hamas, returning all Israeli hostages, and ensuring that Gaza will never again constitute a threat to Israel.²
• Yet, on Sunday, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that now is the 'right time' for Israel to scale back its military operations and transition into a new phase of lower-intensity operations, indicating that the US wants to see 'more precise raids' and 'less airstrikes.'³
• The Israeli military announced Monday that its 36th Division has begun to withdraw for a rest and recuperation (R&R) and training period, after which it will be decided if and where to redeploy them. Meanwhile, three other divisions remain in the Strip as Israeli forces continue to expand their ground operations, entering the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza for the first time since the war began.⁴
• Elsewhere, two Palestinians were arrested for allegedly ramming and stabbing attacks in Raanana, north of Tel Aviv, after one person was killed and 17 others injured on Monday. Police say both suspects are from Hebron, West Bank, and legally entered Israel.⁵
• Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry reports that the conflict has killed over 24K people in the Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in Gaza).⁶

Sources: ¹Axios, ²The New York Times, ³The Hill, ⁴The Times of Israel, ⁵BBC News and ⁶VOA.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Predictions