Report: AI 'Apocalypse' Could Remove Nearly 8M UK Jobs

Improve the News Foundation -

Facts

  • A report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) claims that in a 'worst-case scenario' 7.9M UK jobs could be lost to artificial intelligence (AI) with no impact on gross domestic product (GDP) in a 'second wave' of job replacement.1
  • In the report, titled 'Transformed by AI,' technological advancements are described as a 'double-edged sword,' as the IPPR advocates for preparations to begin concerning the integration of generative AI into 'every aspect of knowledge work.'2
  • In comparison to the report's worst-case scenario, the IPPR predicts a central case of 4.4M jobs lost with 6.3% GDP growth at £144B/year (US $182B), and a best-case of no job losses with a 13% GDP boost of £306B/year ($386B/year).3
  • While these projections concern a future era of AI implementation, the report warns that a current 'first wave' has placed back-office, entry-level, and part-time jobs at risk — mostly affecting women and younger generations.4
  • The report found that 11% of tasks labeled as 'routine cognitive' or 'organizational and strategic' are vulnerable to AI replacement, but this could increase to 59% in the second AI wave, which could include higher-earning jobs.1
  • A spokesperson for the UK's Department for Science, Innovation, and Technology called the paper 'hugely speculative,' and said that the UK government, Innovate UK, and the Alan Turing Institute will publish 'guidance on the core AI skills people need' later this year.5

Sources: 1IPPR, 2ippr.org, 3AI News, 4Independent and 5Sky News.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Yahoo Finance. While AI hype has catalyzed stock values for Big Tech, lower and middle class blue- and white-collar workers are at danger. Regulation must be passed to ensure that — if a major workplace revolution occurs — those left in the dust are looked after. If not, societal divisions will exponentially increase for the worse.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Guardian. To the disappointment of many 20th century dystopian fantasists, technology is not here to take over the world. It's likely AI will merely ease the load of repetitive workforce tasks that have historically degraded the role of humans to soulless machines in the workforce. Many sectors of the job market are irreplaceable and rely on emotional nuances that technology will never be able to replicate.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by metaculus.com. There's a 20% chance that an AI will be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.