Rep. Boebert Announces Intent to Switch Congressional Districts

Facts

• Republican US Rep. Lauren Boebert announced on Wednesday in a Facebook video that she will not run for re-election in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, and will instead run for retiring Republican Rep. Ken Buck’s seat in the 4th district in 2024.¹
• During the video, Boebert claimed that while she hadn't 'arrive[d] at this decision easily,' the rep. believed that the switch was 'the best way' to continue fighting for conservatives within the state.²
• The 4th district, which covers a large expanse of the state’s east, is viewed as a more conservative district — with Donald Trump having received a popular margin of approximately 20 points in Boebert's new potential seat, compared to eight points in the 3rd district.³
• Had she remained in the 3rd district, Boebert would have faced a primary challenge as well as a potential general election rematch with Democrat Adam Frisch, who came a few hundred votes shy of beating Boebert in 2022.³
• Boebert is expected to face a primary challenge in the 4th district from at least five candidates, including former Colorado state senator Jerry Sonnenberg. Three Democrats have also announced their intention to run for the seat.⁴

Sources: ¹CBS, ²Business Insider, ³Associated Press and ⁴FOX News.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Breitbart. This is a win-win situation for Boerbert and the Republican Party. Boebert gets a fresh start and a chance to bring her fiery brand of conservatism to another part of the state, where even if she loses a Republican will most likely prevail. Republicans will also have a better shot at holding onto the 3rd district, where although Boebert may have worn out her welcome, there are strong Republicans ready to pick up where she left off.
• Conservative narrative, as provided by Newsweek. Along with her controversial indecent actions of late, this decision by Boebert again proves she's a detriment to the conservative movement. The 4th district is going to be Republican no matter who runs, vulnerability in the 3rd district may potentially cost Republicans a majority in the House. Boebert should’ve stayed on her side of the state, or made plans for life outside of politics.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. Boebert's toxic brand of 'politics' eventually turned her 3rd district voters against her, and rather than changing her behavior and policies she has opted to find a seat she could win across the state. The fissures of Boebert's decision may cause tensions between the mainstream wing of the GOP and those such as herself who are devoted to former Pres. Trump — and could certainly prove beneficial to the Democrat Party.

Predictions