Regional Voting Begins in Two Indian States

Facts

• Regional elections have commenced in two Indian states, as voters in the central state of Chhattisgarh and the northeastern state of Mizoram went to the polls Tuesday to decide between Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Congress party.¹
• A total of five elections will take place in November, and the contests will be a litmus test for Modi’s popularity ahead of India’s general election next May. More than 160M people — roughly one-sixth of India’s electorate — are eligible to vote in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.²
• The regional elections will be held from Nov. 7 to Nov. 30, with final counts due on Dec. 3. The BJP only rules in Madhya Pradesh and Congress holds power in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, with Mizoram's election to be the first in India’s northeastern regions since ethnic violence erupted in Manipur state in May.³
• 77% of eligible voters turned out in Mizoram, while Chhattisgarh saw a voter turnout of nearly 71%. 40 of Mizoram’s assembly seats were up for a vote, 20 seats were up for a vote in Chhattisgarh in its first phase of voting, and voting on the remaining 70 seats in Chhattisgarh will take place on Nov. 17.⁴
• Madhya Pradesh will also vote on Nov. 17, while Rajasthan in the west and Telangana in the south will vote on Nov. 23 and Nov. 30, respectively. In July, Congress allied with various opposition parties to create the coalition known as 'INDIA' (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) in an attempt to resist the influence of Modi, who remains popular in the country.⁵
• While Modi is polling as poised to secure a third term next year, economic struggles have led to electoral challenges for the BJP in some states. As Congress looks to revive its power in national politics, it has announced various subsidies and programs for women and farmers.¹

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Reuters, ³BBC News, ⁴The Times of India and ⁵Associated Press.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Op India. As voting takes place in multiple states this month, including Chhattisgarh, it is important to remember how much violence and left-wing extremism has been inflicted against the Modi government. Prime Minister Modi and the BJP are focused on making all of India safer so that people can live and thrive in peace. Modi’s government has done wonders for Chhattisgarh in particular, and the BJP will ride the prime minister's success to a resounding electoral victory.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Wire. As Modi’s right-wing policies leave many poor people behind, Congress' focus on economic subsidies will play a major role in its political revival. While the BJP has maintained electoral dominance for some time, its power is fraying at the state level, and the opposition alliance will have an opportunity to pry back control. While Modi may win reelection next year, the BJP is at risk of losing support in the long run, and November's election could be the beginning of a major political shift.

Predictions