UN Report: World on Track for up to +3.1°C of Warming by 2100

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Facts

  • According to a UN Environment Program (UNEP) report released on Thursday, failure to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals will result in global warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius above baseline by the end of the century.[1]
  • Inger Andersen, the UNEP executive director, warned that without a 'massive increase in ambition' in the next round of climate pledges, '1.5 C will be dead within a few years and 2 C will take its place in the intensive care unit.'[2]
  • The annual Emissions Gap report has found that even the implementation of climate pledges could still result in a temperature rise between 2.6°C and 2.8°C above baseline by 2100.[3]
  • The UN report has warned that +2.6°C global warming would worsen heatwaves, wildfires, storms, droughts, and floods. It added that the world must collectively reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to put the planet on a +1.5°C pathway.[4]
  • Anne Olhoff, lead author of the report, said that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 increased to a record high of over 57 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Madagascar is the only country on course to strengthen its carbon mitigation targets for 2030.[5][6]
  • The report comes just weeks before world leaders gather in Azerbaijan for the start of the COP29 climate summit, where they are expected to build on an agreement made in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels.[7][3]

Sources: [1]UNEP, [2]Washington Post, [3]Reuters, [4]RFI, [5]Dw.Com, [6]Unepgrid and [7]POLITICO.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by USA Today and Bloomberg. The record-breaking temperatures are a clear sign that urgent action is needed to address climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events demonstrate the immediate impacts of global warming. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, these devastating consequences will only worsen for humanity and the planet.
  • Narrative B, as provided by New York Times and BBC News. While 2023 was exceptionally hot, it's essential to consider long-term climate trends rather than focusing on individual records. Natural variability plays a role in temperature fluctuations, and more data is needed to fully understand the implications of these recent heat events. The climate system is complex, and caution should be exercised when attributing specific weather events to climate change.

Predictions