Qatar: Hamas Gives Initial Approval for Hostage Deal

Facts

• Qatar signaled on Thursday that Hamas gave its initial approval for a proposal regarding the phased release of Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip and an extended pause in the fighting. Though there have been reports that Israel has also signed off on the deal, an unnamed Israeli official told local media that no such approval had been given.¹
• As the Israeli government internally considers the proposal, senior Hamas officials — such as political leader Ismail Haniyeh and other high-ranking members of the group — are expected in Cairo for their own discussions over the coming days, including with Egyptian officials. Hamas has said that only a permanent ceasefire would lead to freeing the hostages, something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected.²
• Regardless of the negotiations, fierce fighting in Gaza has continued unabated, with Israeli forces on Thursday reportedly pushing further into western Khan Younis in the south of the strip. It's unclear how far Israeli forces will advance and whether they will move into Rafah — which is packed with displaced Palestinians — and Israeli media has reported that negotiations between Israel and Egypt on this issue have made some progress.³
• Meanwhile, US Pres. Joe Biden signed an executive order on Thursday that will allow the US to place new sanctions on Israeli settlers, and potentially Israeli politicians and government officials, involved in violent attacks against Palestinians. The order comes the same day that Biden is set to visit Michigan, home to the largest population of Arab Americans.⁴
• Biden's order was immediately met with backlash from pro-settlement politicians in Israel, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who said the sanctions legitimize Palestinian attacks against settlers and discredits the entire state of Israel.⁵
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed nearly 27K people in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The war has also created a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).⁶

Sources: ¹The Times of Israel, ²The National News, ³Jerusalem Post, ⁴Axios, ⁵X and ⁶Huffington Post.

Narratives

• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by The Nation. Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and 25K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to release hostages via military operations, to kill Hamas's top leaders, or to create conditions advantageous to ending this long drawn-out conflict. Even then, if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is a fool's errand, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive ceasefire.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Daily Beast. Though, of course, this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza, first neutralizing Gaza City before moving on to other population centers like Khan Younis. Israel has substantially degraded Hamas's military capabilities and leadership and even partially degraded elite Hezbollah units stationed along Israel's northern border. Indeed, as Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power should not even be up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals.

Predictions