Putin Won't Attend BRICS Summit

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Facts

  • Russian Pres. Putin will not attend the summit of BRICS countries next month, a statement from the presidency of host country South Africa confirmed on Wednesday.1
  • Putin will instead be represented by his top diplomat, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, the statement from South Africa said — with the decision reportedly coming via "mutual agreement" between the two countries.2
  • The announcement came amid questions over whether South Africa — a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) — would execute an ICC arrest warrant for Putin over allegations he unlawfully deported Ukrainian children to Russia. Russia argues that in cases where Ukrainian children were moved without a guardian's consent, it was done temporarily for their own safety and within the bounds of international law.3
  • On Tuesday, in response to a legal case brought by South Africa's main opposition party seeking to enforce the arrest warrant if Putin attends the summit, court papers released on behalf of South African Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa said, "Russia has made it clear that arresting its sitting President would be a declaration of war."3
  • Ramaphosa's affidavit further described the move from the Democratic Alliance party as "irresponsible" — alleging that the country's national security was at stake. It added that Putin's arrest would also undermine a South African-led mission to end the war in Ukraine and "foreclose any peaceful solution" to the war.3
  • Meanwhile, Putin will still attend the summit on Wednesday via video call according to Russian news reports. The leaders of the remaining BRICS countries — namely Brazil, India, and China — are expected to attend in person.4

Sources: 1South China Morning Post, 2The Presidency, 3Al Jazeera, and 4Jerusalem Post.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. Arresting Putin would jeopardize South Africa's decades-long relationship with Russia and this would, in turn, threaten South Africa's peace, security, and prosperity. Arresting a head of state who ought to enjoy diplomatic immunity is both irresponsible and reckless.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by EWN. The arguments put forward by Cyril Ramaphosa are both farcical and inconsistent. He argues that South Africa ought to respect the sovereignty of Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is ignoring the sovereignty of Ukraine by waging an illegal invasion.

Predictions