Putin Warns Against Western Missiles Striking Inside Russian Territory

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Facts

  • Amid growing momentum for allowing Ukraine to use Western weaponry to strike targets inside Russian territory, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin warned that EU and NATO countries were playing fire, stating that such a move would lead to a global conflict with 'serious consequences.'1
  • Following lobbying from Ukraine, Britain's foreign secretary, Lord David Cameron, was the first to give his backing for the idea. During a visit to Kyiv early in the month, he said it was up to Ukraine how it used British weapons, but said it had the 'right' to strike in Russian territory, just as Russian missiles were striking in Ukraine.2
  • That argument has gained further backing over the past week, with the NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and top officials from the Netherlands and Latvia making a similar case. Current restrictions have left Ukraine fighting 'with one hand tied behind its back,' the Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said on Tuesday.3
  • French Pres. Emmanuel Macron, during a press conference with German counterpart Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, also backed the initiative. 'We think that we should allow them to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired and, basically, the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked,' Macron said.4
  • Reacting to such comments, Putin said on Tuesday: 'Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences. If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons?'1
  • Later in the day, Sabrina Singh, a spokeswoman for the US Dept. of Defense, said 'our position hasn't changed,' regarding Ukraine using American weapons outside sovereign Ukrainian territory. However, she added, 'I leave it to other countries to speak to their own weapons that they provide.'5

Sources: 1Reuters (a), 2Reuters (b), 3Washington Post, 4CNN and 5U.S. Department of Defense.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Atlantic Council. By making thinly veiled references to Russia's nuclear weapons, Putin hopes to continue deterring Ukraine's allies from allowing strikes on Russian territory, knowing that this would change how effectively Ukraine is able to defend itself. In reality, the threat of this sort of escalation is minimal and would make a big difference to Ukraine's war effort.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. With the West continuing to escalate the conflict by making these reckless declarations, it continues to validate why Russia must stay true to course and achieve the objectives of its Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Russia will not tolerate threats to its territory and such threats will be eliminated.

Predictions