Putin to Ban Oil Supply to Price Cap Countries

Facts

• Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin delivered his response to a Western price cap on Tuesday, signing a decree that bans the supply of crude oil and oil products to countries abiding by the price cap for five months after Feb. 1.
• A price cap implemented by G7 countries, Australia, and the EU came into effect on Dec. 5th prohibiting countries from paying more than $60 per barrel of Russian oil.
• Putin's decree issued on Tuesday read, "Deliveries of Russian oil and oil products to foreign entities and individuals are banned, on the condition that in the contracts for these supplies, the use of a maximum price fixing mechanism is directly or indirectly envisaged.”
• Western countries implemented the price cap in order to decrease Russia’s revenue while it engages in war with Ukraine. The cap prohibits Russian oil sold for over $60 from being shipped using G7 and EU tankers, insurance companies, and credit institutions.
• Russian oil has been selling slightly below the price cap level ($56 per barrel), but the effects of the price cap may decrease Moscow’s oil earnings. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia’s budget deficit could be wider than the planned 2% of GDP.
• Putin still maintains the right to make special decisions on the supply of oil and petroleum products, meaning that Russian oil can be sold to countries adhering to the West’s price cap if Putin makes an exception.

Sources: Reuters, BBC News, News Max, U.S. News, and Tass.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Forbes. The West's price cap was foolish from the onset, and bound to backfire. The cap is easy to circumvent, and Russia will continue to be one of the world’s leaders in oil exports, given its ability to tap into eastern markets. There are many areas able and willing to buy Russian oil and Western countries will now simply be forced to pay more for oil elsewhere.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Fortune. Putin’s energy blackmail may make him feel powerful now, but his decision to cut off oil sales to Western countries will hurt Russia in the long run. Russia is very dependent on oil exports to keep its economy afloat and stunting the global oil market is another blunder in Putin’s long line of mistakes.