Putin Proposes Changes to Russia's Nuclear Doctrine

Facts

• Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin on Wednesday proposed new changes to the country's nuclear doctrine — a move widely considered a warning to the West against permitting Ukraine to use long-range weapons on Russian territory.^[1][2]
• For months, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for restrictions to be lifted on his country's use of UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles, and US-provided ATACMS missiles. The request is expected to top the agenda when Zelenskyy meets US Pres. Joe Biden Thursday.^[3][4]
• Seemingly referencing Ukraine and the US, Putin said it was being 'proposed' that any 'aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state' which had 'the participation or support of a nuclear state' should be regarded as a 'joint attack on the Russian Federation.'^[5]
• 'The conditions for Russia's transition to the use of nuclear weapons are also clearly fixed,' Putin added, stating that Russia could consider using the weapons if it detected a massive launch of conventional missiles, aircraft, or drones against it.^[5]
• Russia's existing nuclear doctrine, adopted in 2020, states that Russia can only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack, or if a conventional attack threatens the existence of the Russian state.^[5]
• Putin further said that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if neighbor and ally Belarus were threatened. Last year, Russia transferred tactical nuclear weapons — which have a relatively low yield in comparison with traditional nuclear weapons — to Belarus.^[5][6]

Sources: ^[1]Al Jazeera, ^[2]The Moscow Times, ^[3]Guardian, ^[4]BBC News, ^[5]CNN and ^[6]Sky News.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. Putin's proposed changes to his country's nuclear doctrine are likely an attempt to breathe new life into Russia's saber-rattling — particularly at a time when Western countries are debating lifting restrictions on long-range weapons. Nonetheless, it's never good when a nuclear-armed country loosens its parameters over when such weapons can be deployed.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. Russia has no tool to intimidate global partners other than nuclear blackmail. These threats should be ignored, and certainly should not prevent Western countries from providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to defeat Russia on the battlefield.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. The proposed changes to Russia's military doctrine are in direct response to the military and political threats the country is facing. These adjustments are essential to ensure that Russian citizens, and the Russian state, remain adequately protected.

Predictions