Putin Outlines Cease-fire Terms as Ukraine's Peace Summit Commences

Facts

• As dozens of world leaders and heads of state prepared to arrive in Switzerland for a Ukrainian-led peace summit this weekend, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin laid out his terms for a cease-fire, which he described as a 'final resolution' to the conflict rather than a 'freezing' of the war.¹
• Ukraine's Summit on Peace, hosted in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock, has for now excluded Moscow's participation. However, according to reporting in the Associated Press, Ukraine's Swiss hosts 'insist that Russia must be involved at some point, and hope it will join the process one day.'²
• Following a busy week of politics and diplomacy, the Ukrainian summit follows that of the Group of Seven (G7) nations summit held in Italy. There, in a press conference alongside Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US Pres. Joe Biden signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine that included a US-backed loan on the interests of frozen Russian assets.³
• In remarks at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday, Putin described that agreement as 'null and void,' adding that peace talks without Russia's participation are 'just another ploy to divert everyone’s attention, reverse the cause and effect of the Ukrainian crisis [and] set the discussion on the wrong track.'⁴
• In laying out his vision for peace, Putin said Ukraine would need to withdraw from the four territories Russia has claimed to have annexed — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — as well as for Ukraine to give up it's claim to Crimea. Putin added that Ukraine would also need to drop its aspirations of joining the NATO military alliance.⁵
• Putin added that were Ukraine to agree to these 'fundamental international agreements,' Moscow would work 'immediately' toward a cease-fire in the war, stating that the Kremlin was 'ready to start negotiations without delay.'⁴

Sources: ¹NBC, ²Associated Press (a), ³Verity, ⁴Associated Press (b) and ⁵BBC News.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin, after waging his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, has illegally annexed four regions, although it doesn’t fully control any of them. He is in no position to dictate the terms of peace to Ukraine.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Sky News. These ultimatums from Putin are nothing new to Ukraine, as they've been repeated throughout his invasion. In saying 'give me this land, and I will stop occupying,' Putin is taking the same path as Nazi Germany under Hitler. He can't be taken seriously.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. It was quite predictable that NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy would dismiss Russia's proposals out of hand. However, this was not an ultimatum, as Zelenskyy understood it, but a serious attempt at peace.

Predictions