Putin Claims Ukraine's Counteroffensive is Failing

Facts

• In the first meeting of its type during the 15-month Russia-Ukraine war, Russian Pres. Putin hosted a range of journalists and war bloggers for televised questioning on Russia's progress in its so-called "special military operation" on Tuesday.¹
• The talks covered if and how Russia's objectives have changed since the conflict started, delved into Putin's assessments of the breach at the Nova Kakhovka dam, and discussed sensitive areas including Ukrainian attacks in Russian territory and problems in Russia's weapons supply lines.¹
• Putin also publicly addressed Ukraine's counteroffensive for only the second time since it was launched on June 4, again alleging it has failed despite Ukrainian claims of territorial gains. "This is a massive counteroffensive, using strategic reserves that were prepared for this task," he said, suggesting that Ukrainian forces "are approaching a level that could be described as catastrophic."²
• However, Putin, in a rare move, also admitted Russia's shortcomings in the course of the war. He conceded that Russia was short of "high-precision ammunition, communications equipment, aircraft, drones, and so on" while stating that Moscow could have better anticipated Ukrainian attacks on its border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk. He said he was considering whether "to create in Ukrainian territory a kind of sanitary zone at such a distance from which it would be impossible to get our territory."³
• Nonetheless, despite Putin's claims on Ukraine's counteroffensive, Ukraine's military claimed to have continued making territorial gains in a statement on Wednesday, alleging that its forces have moved between 200 meters (660 feet) and 1.4 km (0.87 miles) in some areas of the front in three days of fighting.⁴
• Meanwhile, another day of fighting has again claimed a toll on civilians: in the Odesa region, at least three civilians were killed and 10 more were injured after a Russian missile strike successfully penetrated missile defenses; in the Donetsk region, Russian missiles killed three civilians and wounded three more; one civilian was killed in attacks on Kherson region; and in Kryvyi Rih, where a Tuesday missile attack initially claimed the lives of six civilians, the death toll on Wednesday was revised to 12.⁵

Sources: ¹President of Russia, ²Guardian, ³BBC News, ⁴UKRINFORM, and ⁵Ukrainska Pravda.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by BBC News. Russia's figures are not accurate and Putin's public statements on the war should not be taken seriously. Ukraine's forces have had modest successes and they are moving forward with their plans. They continue to make territorial gains.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by President of Russia. Putin's remarks are frank exchanges with a range of journalists and war bloggers. He tackled sensitive issues and gave his honest assessments of Russia's standing and objectives on multiple issues as it moves forward with achieving its goals. Ukraine is losing this war.

Predictions