Putin: China, India, and Brazil Could Mediate Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

Facts

• Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin offered Ukraine another chance at peace negotiations Thursday, suggesting that China, India, and Brazil could be trusted to act as mediators for any such talks.^[1]
• Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in the Russian city of Vladivostok, Putin said, however, that preliminary agreements reached between Russia and Ukraine in the Istanbul peace talks — held in the first months of the war but never implemented — should be the basis of future negotiations.^[2]
• 'We had practically achieved all parameters of a possible peace agreement with representatives of the [Kyiv] government,' Putin said in reference to the Istanbul talks, 'We agreed on everything.' He added, 'True, there were still some details to be finalized, but on the whole the approval is still valid.'^[2]
• Putin's offering came a day after Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered a major shakeup of his government, stating that 'new energy' — including in diplomacy — was needed at this critical phase of the war. Five Ukrainian cabinet ministers, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, offered their resignations before Zelenskyy's announcement.^[3]
• The offering also came as Ukraine's assault into Russia's Kursk region, now nearly a month old, continued to make marginal advances, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US military-affiliated think tank that tracks troop positions in the war.^[4]
• However, Ukraine's offensive in Kursk has failed to draw Russian troops from Ukraine's eastern regions, including in Donetsk where Russia is advancing on the cities of Pokrovisk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar. If they fall, the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk could also be at risk.^[5]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]TASS, ^[3]Associated Press, ^[4]Understandingwar and ^[5]The Hill.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Russia reached a preliminary peace deal with Ukraine in 2022. Everything was in writing. But the UK's Boris Johnson persuaded Ukraine to ditch the talks in favor of defeating Russia on the battlefield. Ukraine chose its fate and that's where we are today.
• Pro-Ukraine narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. Early peace talks with Russia fell apart because it insisted on veto power over parts of the agreement. Since then, Zelenskyy has made several attempts at talks with Putin that were ignored. After that, Zelenskyy concluded that Putin was not sincere about negotiations.

Predictions