Putin Challenger Submits Bid to Run for Russian President

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Facts

• A prominent critic of Russian Pres. Vladamir Putin, Boris Nadezhdin, says he has collected enough signatures to qualify for Russia's upcoming presidential election.¹
• The former member of parliament, who has become well-known for his critiques of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his calls for an end to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, announced on Wednesday that he had received the required 100K signatures needed to be considered.²
• The documents were handed over to the Central Election Commission which will now verify the authenticity of the signatures and decide within 10 days whether he is allowed to run for president.³
• Yekaterina Duntsova, another anti-war candidate, was rejected by the Central Election Commission in December over alleged errors in her campaign documents. Should Nadezhdin's bid be rejected, he said he's prepared to call for mass protests in 150 cities across the country.³
• Putin announced late last year that he would be running for his fifth term as Pres. which would keep him in power until at least 2030. The Kremlin has emphasized that Putin has 'the overwhelming support of Russian citizens' ahead of the March 15-17 election.⁴
• Russian presidential campaigns have previously been known for the alleged presence of 'spoiler candidates,' where candidates who are not viewed as a threat to the incumbent are allowed to run, but sometimes don't even campaign. This presidential race, however, has become marked by the so-called 'spoiler candidates' dropping out of the race before it even begins and expressing support for current Pres. Putin.⁵

Sources: ¹Barrons, ²BBC News, ³Dw.Com, ⁴CNN and ⁵POLITICO.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by POLITICO. Despite his overwhelming outpouring of support, it would be surprising if Nadezhdin isn't barred from running for president, given Putin's history of persecuting political rivals and shutting down any genuine political opposition. Democracy in Russia is performative, as no candidates actually capable of beating Putin are allowed to run — something that must change if Moscow wants to align with the rules-based international order.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Moscow Times. None of the other candidates campaigning against Putin stand any chance due to the president's current popularity. All of Russia is united in favor of this longstanding successful leader. At times of turmoil, like Russia being at war with Ukraine, it's especially important that the Russian people come together and vote for stability in the face of a threatening, hegemonic West.

Predictions