Putin Addresses Rebellion, Zelenskyy Claims Counteroffensive Gains

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Facts

  • In an unscheduled TV address late on Monday, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin — reportedly visibly angry — made his first comments on the short-lived rebellion launched by Wagner PMC since its conclusion on Saturday. "Any blackmail or way to bring confusion to Russia is doomed to failure," Putin said, adding: "I made steps to avoid large-scale bloodshed."1
  • Without mentioning Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin by name, Putin said the organizers of the rebellion "betrayed their country, their people," stating that this is what Russia's enemy wanted, "so that in the end Russia would lose, and our society would split, choke in bloody civil strife." Putin also paid tribute to the Russian pilots killed in the failed mutiny; military bloggers suggested that as many as 13 were dead.1
  • Putin's address came hours after Prigozhin, now exiled in Belarus, also commented on the mutiny for the first time since Saturday. In the 11-minute voice memo released by his press service, Prigozhin defended the uprising, but said that his intention was never to topple Putin or the Russian government. Instead, he insisted: "We marched as a demonstration of our protest."1
  • Prigozhin said the aim of the march was "to avoid destruction of Wagner." He said his fighters were "categorically" opposed to the plans from Russia's defense ministry that seek to officially incorporate Wagner and all other mercenary groups into the Russian military by July 1, 2023. Prigozhin proceeded to further criticize the Russian military, suggesting that his actions revealed widespread security flaws.2
  • US Pres. Joe Biden also made his first public comments concerning the mutiny on Monday, saying he was in constant contact with US allies over the weekend to coordinate their response and that the US and its allies wanted to prevent a possible perception that America had any part to play. "They agree with me that we had to make sure we gave Putin no excuse ... to blame this on the West, to blame this on NATO," Biden said. "We made clear that we were not involved, that we had nothing to do with it."3
  • Meanwhile, in his nightly address on Monday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was a "happy day," stating: "Today, our warriors have advanced in all directions." The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the war, seemed to confirm Zelenskyy's claims in its latest assessment. "Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and advanced on at least two sectors of the front as of June 26," the ISW said.4

Sources: 1Guardian, 2Newsweek, 3NBC, and 4President.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. Although this rebellion was short-lived, the events of the past weekend have no doubt undermined Vladimir Putin's political authority in Moscow. His grip on power in the country has never been weaker, and the severe consequences of this rebellion are only starting to play out.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. This is a unique and crucial time for Russia — the nation is not only entangled in an all-out war with the West, but faces a battle in terms of the economy and information too. Russia must not let itself become divided over this issue, and must stand up squarely to these challenges and threats.

Predictions