Presidential Prognosticator Lichtman Predicts Harris Will Defeat Trump

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Facts

  • American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, dubbed the 'Nostradamus' of US presidential elections, on Thursday released his prediction for the 2024 election, declaring that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump.[1][2]
  • Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, with the exception of the 2000 Bush-Gore race, when he said the Democratic candidate would win the presidency.[3]
  • He bases his predictions on an unorthodox model developed in 1981 — along with his friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok — which ignores polls and focuses on 13 'big picture' questions he calls the 'keys' to the White House.[4][5]
  • They include whether the sitting president is running for reelection and if their party won House seats in midterms, as well as questions about candidate charisma, third-party challengers, major national policy changes, social unrest, and scandals in the White House.[6][7]
  • According to the system, the incumbent party candidate will be declared a winner as long as no more than five keys favor the challenger. As of August, there were three negative keys for Harris and a further two — related to foreign policy — were unanswered.[5][7]
  • Meanwhile, as of Wednesday, Nate Silver's continuously updated statistical election model based on state-level polls put Trump's chances at 58.2% — the highest in over a month.[8][4]

Sources: [1]CNBC, [2]American University, [3]New York Post, [4]Washington Times, [5]Daily Mail, [6]The Hill, [7]USA Today and [8]Newsweek.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by The Daily Beast. While 'The Keys to the White House' is a prediction model rather than the actual vote, the fact that Allan Lichtman has forecast a Harris win is indeed great news. His record on predicting the outcome of presidential elections is remarkable — it looks like Harris has good odds.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by The Western Journal. Lichtman has no objective method. He rather relies on highly questionable conclusions, such as that the Democratic Party is united, that Bidenomics have been good for the American economy, and that foreign policy success and failures remain inconclusive. Using indisputable facts, the keys would favor Trump.

Predictions