President Lai Says Taiwan Will 'Resist Annexation or Encroachment'

Facts

• Speaking in Taipei on Taiwan's National Day, President William Lai claimed that China had 'no right to represent' the island while pledging to 'uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment.'^[1][2][3]
• Taiwan's National Day celebrations on Thursday marked the 113th anniversary of the Republic of China's (ROC) formation following the end of the Qing dynasty. The ROC later relocated to Taiwan from mainland China in 1949 after Mao Zedong's victory in the Chinese civil war.^[4]
• Lai claimed that both Taiwan's 'determination to defend [its] national sovereignty' and 'efforts to maintain the status quo of peace and stability' were 'unchanged,' and called for 'healthy and orderly dialogue' between itself and mainland China.^[5]
• Taiwan's President also stated that he was 'willing to work' with China on issues such as climate change, infectious diseases, regional security, and the 'well-being of the people on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.'^[6]
• In reaction to these comments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning alleged that Lai was peddling political narratives with 'selfish political interest,' before stating that Taiwan was an 'inalienable part of Chinese territory.'^[7]
• Earlier this month, China's Pres. Xi Jinping reaffirmed the PRC's claim on Taiwan during its own 75th anniversary celebrations.^[8]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]Metaculus, ^[3]Focus Taiwan, ^[4]CNA, ^[5]President, ^[6]Reuters, ^[7]MFA and ^[8]CNN.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Taipei Times. Despite mainland China's wishful thinking, Lai's speech was but another reminder to Beijing that it must face reality and acknowledge Taiwan's sovereign independence. Calls for reunification under a foreign, socialist regime are unimaginable to the island's people and are merely proxies for Chinese Communist Party claims that lack any historical legitimacy. While Taiwan hopes for peaceful relations with its neighbors, the island must be prepared for any attempt by Beijing to see its tyrannical plans achieved.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Chinadaily. Lai's dangerous rhetoric comes straight from the US, which seeks nothing more than to divide and unwind the ties that bound the Chinese people together. With Taiwan now but a puppet for Washington, bad actors risk undermining the very safety of the island's population in order to achieve wishful ideological goals. The US would do well to honor its commitment to the previously agreed-on One China policy and work to forge a more constructive agreement with the PRC.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by X. There is a 66% chance that, if China invades Taiwan before 2035, the US will respond with military force, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Predictions