Premier Li Qiang Announces 5.2% GDP Growth for China in 2023

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Facts

• Chinese Premier Li Qiang revealed that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 5.2% in 2023 while speaking at the opening ceremony of the 2024 World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting on Tuesday.¹
• The National Bureau of Statistics of China confirmed a day later that total GDP in 2023 had risen to approximately 126T yuan (~ US$17.7T) in 2023, claiming that despite a 'complex and grave international environment,' the economy had 'witnessed the momentum of recovery.'²
• Li stated that the Chinese economy, described as an 'important engine of global development,' was making 'steady progress' and had exceeded the 5% target set at the beginning of 2023. He added that Beijing did 'not seek short-term growth while accumulating long-term risks,' while claiming that the Chinese economy could 'handle ups and downs in its performance.'¹
• According to data from the World Bank, when disregarding years affected by the COVID pandemic, the growth rate is China's lowest since 1990 (3.9%). China also saw a 2.2% growth rate in 2020 and a 3% growth rate in 2022.³
• In his remarks at the WEF in Davos, Li said that innovation should not be used to restrict other nations, noting the importance of 'cooperation in innovation.' He didn't mention any countries, but Beijing has repeatedly called on Washington to ease restrictions that prevent Chinese companies from buying advanced technology from US businesses.⁴
• Following the news, China's CSI300 Index declined by 2.18%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.09%, the Shenzen Composite Index fell by 2.54%, and the STAR 100 Index dropped by 1.9%.⁵

Sources: ¹MFA, ²Stats, ³World Bank Open Data, ⁴CNBC and ⁵Asia Financial.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. Despite uncertain international economic conditions, the Chinese economy has once again defied expectations and surpassed the government's GDP target in 2023. PRC government policies continue to lead China out of the depths of the COVID pandemic and, despite a lagging real estate sector, 2024 looks set to be another solid year for economic advancement.
• Anti-China narrative, as provided by CNN. With 2023 seeing some of China's weakest economic growth in over three decades alongside a second consecutive year of population decline, there is much to worry about in Beijing. Following China's working population specifically seeing a decline of over 10M last year, China's GDP will almost certainly see a further decline in 2024 as the world's second-largest economy continues to grapple with a plethora of domestic dangers

Predictions