Polls: Trump Leads Opponents, Biden's Approval Rating Drops

Facts

• According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll published Sunday, former Pres. Donald Trump leads his GOP opponents in several measures of popularity. The news came ahead of his resounding victory in the Iowa caucuses, and amid revelations Pres. Joe Biden's approval rating has sunk to a 15 year presidential low of 33%.¹
• The national survey found Trump (68%) ahead of Ron DeSantis (11%) and Nikki Haley (12%) in having the best chance of winning the presidential election in November — Vivek Ramaswamy received just 2%. Trump was also rated 'the strongest leader' and the 'best qualified' by respondents.²
• In all, 72% of GOP-aligned voters said they would be satisfied with Trump as the Republican presidential nominee, compared to 61% for DeSantis, and 48% for Haley. Meanwhile, 57% of Democratic voters said they would be satisfied with Pres. Biden as their party's nominee.²
• Furthermore, 31% of respondents approved of Pres. Biden's handling of the economy and 26% approved of how he's dealt with the Israel-Hamas war. Additionally, 13% said they're better off financially since he took office; an equal percentage said they were worse off in the middle of Trump's term.³
• The ABC News/Ipsos poll coincided with a CBS News/YouGov poll, which claimed Trump could beat Biden by a margin of 50%-48%, Haley by 53%-45%, and DeSantis by 51%-48% in a hypothetical general election match-up.⁴
• Among different demographic groups, Biden received 31% approval from women — compared to the 57% he won in 2020 — and is polling 21%, 15%, and 6 points below average among Black voters, Hispanic voters, and White voters, respectively.⁵

Sources: ¹Axios, ²ABC News, ³FOX News, ⁴The Hill and ⁵Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by CNN. While these polls aren't showing Biden in the best position, the president's re-election campaign has been strategizing for every possibility regarding the general election. If Trump is his opponent, they'll successfully point to the former president's increasing use of Nazi-like rhetoric and his tax cuts for the rich. If Haley is the GOP nominee, then Biden can point to her omission of slavery when asked about the causes of the Civil War. Biden has more than enough time and resources to make a comeback.
• Republican narrative, as provided by New York Post. Trump's current polling doesn't mean he's a shoo-in for the nomination. The former president is facing tough competitors in Haley and DeSantis, as well as ongoing litigation and lawsuits. Trump's confidence comes from retaining 50% of the vote in polls. Still, there are many more states to go, and if Haley and DeSantis start to gain higher double-digit results, he could see a decline as the primary season continues.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by FOX News. Beyond the insurmountable polling advantage Trump currently enjoys as the primaries begin, the former president has also welcomed the endorsements of almost two dozen US senators as he competes against his bought-and-paid-for opponents. In fact, Trump's former opponent, Marco Rubio, who used to call Trump a 'con artist,' has thrown his weight behind the frontrunner because he knows the America First policies he desires won't get passed if the neocons on the ballot get nominated.

Predictions