Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Harris Ahead Nationally

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Facts

  • In a new Marist poll, Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump leads Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in Florida by 51%-47%, though Harris leads among Florida independent voters by 55%-41%.[1]
  • This comes as a recent New York Times/Sienna College poll shows Trump ahead 55%-41% in Florida and 50%-44% in Texas, which hold a combined 70 electoral college votes. Meanwhile, the poll shows Harris leading nationally 49%-46%.[2][3]
  • Elsewhere in the country, an Emerson College poll places Trump slightly ahead in Arizona (49%-47%), Georgia (49%-48%), North Carolina (49%-48%), and Pennsylvania (49%-48%), with Harris slightly ahead in Nevada (48%-47%) and tied in Michigan and Wisconsin.[4][5]
  • However, a Quinnipiac poll places Harris ahead 49%-46% in Pennsylvania, 50%-47% in Michigan, and 48%-46% in Wisconsin — all tight races. Her lead in Pennsylvania is down by half compared to a Quinnipiac poll from a month ago.[6]
  • In all of the aforementioned states, the Emerson College poll shows Trump leading among men while Harris leads among women. Harris leads in both the 18-29 and 30-44 age brackets, while Trump is up among those 45 and older.[4]

Sources: [1]The Hill, [2]New York Times, [3]Newsweek, [4]Independent, [5]New York Post and [6]FOX News.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by PJ Media. Kamala Harris only has a slight lead nationally, which means she's heading toward defeat if these swing state polls are accurate. As for anyone who balks at these numbers, they're being validated by internal Democratic Party polls — which means the Harris campaign is deeply concerned and reaching out for help.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. A slight shift in a few polls is not a worry for Kamala Harris. Just a couple of weeks ago she was leading in all but one swing state, and she was even gaining ground on topics like immigration and the economy. Independent voters are going to decide this election, and Trump's personality will only continue to alienate the voters he needs most.

Predictions