Polls Suggest Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum May Fail

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Facts

  • Just a month before the vote, Australia's referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament appears to be in danger of failing after recent polls showed a further decline in support for the measure.1
  • A survey conducted for the Sydney Morning Herald showed that voter opinion has swung against a Voice to Parliament for the fifth month in a row as the government struggles to convince skeptical and undecided voters to approve the proposal.2
  • In the first referendum in a generation, Australians will vote on whether or not to amend the Constitution to recognize local Aboriginal tribes as the First Peoples of Australia. The amendment is aimed at giving the most disadvantaged ethnic minority more input on government policy.3
  • Support for the Indigenous Voice is down 20% from a year ago and is now at 43%.4
  • Jim Reed, the resolve director, said there were no signs that the campaign to change the Constitution, including adopting 'You’re the Voice' by John Farnham as its anthem, had boosted voter support for the cause. 'If anything, the campaign is having the opposite effect because the No vote is still growing,' he said.5
  • Indigenous Australians make up only about three percent of the overall population, but they continue to experience severe inequalities in areas such as life expectancy and poverty. They are also more likely to be incarcerated than non-Indigenous people.1

Sources: 1Al Jazeera, 2Reuters, 3Associated Press, 4Daily Mail and 5The sydney morning herald.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Oxfam australia. Australia has a chance to become a more inclusive and democratic nation by recognizing the First Peoples in its Constitution. The Voice referendum will give Australians this opportunity on Oct. 14.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Rule of law education centre. The constitutional recognition of Indigenous people is desirable. However, this referendum on the Voice is not the way to achieve that goal. The real purpose of this referendum is to change our system of government by injecting a permanent element of racial privilege into the Constitution. It's essential to vote 'no' on Oct.14.

Predictions