Polls Show Trump Leads Biden, Faces Mixed Results Against Others

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Facts

• The latest Emerson College Polling survey released Tuesday shows former Pres. Donald Trump has a three-point lead over Pres. Joe Biden in the nationwide matchup, 46-43%, as the Democratic nominee has been subjected to calls to exit the race since his subpar debate performance last month.¹
• The survey also found the presumptive GOP nominee ahead in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against nine potential Biden replacements — including Vice President Kamala Harris, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.²
• Meanwhile, a new survey from top Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi shows Trump leading Biden, 43-42%, but trailing both Harris (42-41%) and Clinton (43-41%).³
• The Bendixen & Amandi poll also indicates that Newsom is behind Trump, 40-37%, with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer a little further behind (40-36%).⁴
• In addition, the latest YouGov poll shows nearly half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say Biden should step aside. And if Biden steps aside, two-thirds would approve of Harris as the new nominee. Michelle Obama has a similar approval rating but has said she would not run.⁵
• Post-debate polls in six battleground states suggest close races in Michigan and Wisconsin, with Trump best positioned in Nevada and leading also in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.⁶

Sources: ¹Emerson Polling, ²The Hill, ³Politico, ⁴Newsweek, ⁵YouGov and ⁶Washingtonexaminer.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by MSNBC. Enough with the insurgency, Biden is the Democratic nominee and isn't going anywhere. Now that it's clear that the party elites, pundits, and donors want him out of the race, Biden must go directly to the American people and defeat Trump for the good of the country.
• Narrative B, as provided by USA Today. It's clear that Biden is no longer fit to run for office and Trump will easily defeat him to regain the White House. There's no alternative to protect democratic institutions from a MAGA-led administration other than convincing Biden to step aside — and choosing any of the qualified potential replacements through an open process.
• Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. Trump has a clear path to return to the White House, especially if Biden stays in the race and the Democratic infighting intensifies. While the Democrats are destroying themselves, Trump's leadership in polls gets wider.

Predictions