Polls Show Trump Leading Biden in Battleground States

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Facts

  • Former US Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has a two-point lead over Pres. Joe Biden, 37%-35% overall in the seven swing states, according to the latest Ipsos poll released Thursday. In addition 15% of voters are undecided and 10% support third-party candidates.1
  • In a two-way race, Trump leads by four points in the Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and by two points in the Southeast (Georgia and North Carolina). In the Southwest (Arizona and Nevada), Biden's up one point.2
  • New Emerson/The Hill polls in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show Trump edging Biden in all of them, with his lead ranging from one to four points.3
  • Support for the 45th president has either remained the same or grown in all six states since his criminal conviction last month in Manhattan. Additionally, Biden and Trump are even at 45% in blue Minnesota, according to the Emerson/The Hill poll.4
  • Meanwhile, a new Fox News national poll released earlier this week found a three-point shift toward Biden, now the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against Trump — 50% to 48% — for the first time since October.5
  • A presidential candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes — which are allocated among the US states based on population — to win the White House, regardless of the national popular vote tally.6

Sources: 1Forbes, 2Ipsos, 3The Hill, 4New York Post, 5FOX News and 6Newsweek.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. These polls, and ones showing Trump is in a dead heat with Biden in places that haven't voted Democrat in decades, are great news for the former president. Considering how he outperformed his polling numbers in the past two presidential elections, these results suggest that he's heading for a landslide win in November to secure his return to the White House.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. There's plenty of time left for Biden to overtake Trump in the battleground states before Election Day. But the Biden campaign's message must change from casting Trump as an existential threat to democracy to an economy-based message that'll rally the Democratic base and sway disengaged swing voters who currently are leaning toward Trump.

Predictions