Polls: Poland’s Law and Justice Party Set to Lose Majority

Facts

• Exit polls in a contentious and important Polish election indicated that the ruling Law and Justice party is on the verge of losing control, with the opposition having the best chance of forming the country's next government.¹
• Ipsos' exit poll indicates that although the right-wing populist Law and Justice party is expected to win the most seats in Poland's general election, it is unlikely to win a third term in power.²
• After the polls closed, both the Law and Justice party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski and the Civic Coalition's Donald Tusk claimed victory. 'I have never been so happy about second place,' said Tusk. 'Poland has won, democracy has won...' Kaczynski told supporters.³
• However, days of negotiations may lie ahead until it becomes clear which party or coalition will form Poland's next government. In order to form a government, 231 seats in the Sejm—the lower house of the parliament—are needed.⁴
• The exit poll suggests that the three opposition parties have won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house. Donald Tusk's party, the Civic Coalition, has won 31.6% of votes and is likely to form the next government.⁵
• Academic analysts have suggested that Poland's president could, in theory, give the Law and Justice party a first opportunity to form a government and delay moves by the opposition. The final tallies, expected Tuesday, could also potentially shift the equation.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN (a), ²BBC News, ³DW, ⁴CNN (b), ⁵Associated Press and ⁶The Guardian.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by Los Angeles Times. These election results are good news for Poland. This could signal the end of eight years of bad politics, which have frequently caused Poland and the EU to clash. A new administration could have a significant impact on Poland's future, the balance of power in the EU, and the course of the Ukrainian conflict. This is cause for celebration.
• Right narrative, as provided by South China Morning Post. The ruling nationalist conservative party won more votes than any single party and said it wanted to build a government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. It makes sense that the largest party would also have the first opportunity to try to create a new government. We will know more on Tuesday when the state electoral commission presents its final results. It's still possible that the Law and Justice party will yield great sway over Poland's politics.

Predictions