Polls: Harris Leading Trump Nationwide, Virtual Tie in Swing States

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Facts

  • A string of national polls released this week show Democratic candidate Vice Pres. Kamala Harris ahead of her Republican opponent, former Pres. Donald Trump, with polling averages indicating a two-to-five-point lead nationally.[1]
  • Two polls released on Thursday found that Harris has a one-to-two-point lead over Trump in the race for the White House — 50% to 48%, according to Emerson College, and 50.7% to 49.3%, according to Activote.[2][3]
  • Harris enjoys a three-point advantage, 48% to 45%, among both likely voters and registered voters, according to The Economist/YouGov, and five-point leads in Morning Consult and SP&R polls — 51% to 46% and 49% to 44%, respectively.[4][5][6]
  • State polls indicate that the two are locked in a virtual tie in key battleground states, with polling averages putting Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina while Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin — with a tie in Pennsylvania.[7][8]
  • On Thursday, both candidates will campaign in swing states. Trump is scheduled to rally in Michigan, and Harris is set to campaign with former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney in Ripon, Wis., the purported birthplace of the Republican Party.[9][10]

Sources: [1]Forbes, [2]Emerson Polling, [3]Activote, [4]YouGov, [5]Susquehanna Polling & Research, [6]Morning Consult Pro, [7]Politico, [8]Realclearpolling, [9]CNN and [10]FOX News.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results are actually very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by The Hill. Given that Harris has consistently been ahead of Trump in polls, Republicans have resorted to the fact that support for Trump was underestimated in the previous election cycles. One should not expect them to be inaccurate again, though, as pollsters have worked to improve their methodologies.

Predictions