Polls: Harris and Trump in Tight Race Nationally and in Battlegrounds
With less than two weeks ahead of Election Day, polling indicates that Democratic nominee Vice Pres. Kamala Harris leads former Pres. Donald Trump by 48.0% to 46.5%, according to FiveThirtyEight, and tied at 48.5% according to RealClearPolitics....
Facts
- With less than two weeks ahead of Election Day, polling indicates that Democratic nominee Vice Pres. Kamala Harris leads former Pres. Donald Trump by 48.0% to 46.5%, according to FiveThirtyEight, and tied at 48.5% according to RealClearPolitics.[1][2][3]
- Harris' largest margin is in a Big Village poll, where she tops Trump by seven points, 52% to 45%. She is also up in polls from CNBC, The Economist/YouGov, Emerson College, Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, TIPP, and USA Today/Suffolk.[3][2][4]
- Meanwhile, surveys from Atlas Intel, CNBC, HarrisX/Forbes, Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, and Wall Street Journal found Trump ahead in the race, with leads of up to three points.[3][2][4]
- Winning the national popular vote does not guarantee victory within the US Electoral College system, with multiple states — including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — seen as battleground states this cycle.[5][6]
- As of Oct. 24, FiveThirtyEight has Harris and Trump within 0.3 points or even in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania; Harris leading by 0.7 points in Michigan, and Trump leaving by over a point in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. RealClearPolling has Trump ahead in all seven states as of Oct. 23.[7][3]
- FiveThirtyEight projects Trump has a 51% chance of winning, with Harris at 49%. Meanwhile, the Economist has put their chances at 53% to 47%, respectively, with Trump projected to win 273 electoral votes.[8][9]
Sources: [1]BBC News, [2]RealClearPolling (a), [3]FiveThirtyEight (a), [4]Forbes, [5]Reuters, [6]USA Today, [7]RealClearPolling (b), [8]Economist and [9]FiveThirtyEight (b).
Narratives
- Republican narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results nationally and in key battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win the Electoral College by an even greater margin than 2016 — and even to secure the popular vote.
- Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. A slight shift in a few polls is not a worry for Kamala Harris. Just a couple of weeks ago she was leading in all but one swing state, and she was even gaining ground on topics like immigration and the economy. Independent voters are going to decide this election, and Trump's personality will only continue to alienate those he needs most.
