Polls: Biden Gains on Trump in 6 Battleground States

Facts

• A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll has shown Pres. Joe Biden advancing against Republican rival Donald Trump in six of seven key swing states. Biden has trailed in national and battleground state polls for roughly the past five months.¹
• While Biden is still trailing overall, the poll suggests he's narrowed the gap — especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania where the two candidates are tied at 45%. Data shows he has come within 2 points in Nevada while taking a 1-point lead in Wisconsin, where Trump led by 4 points last month.²
• Trump still leads 47% to 43% nationally, with a majority of those who'd favored Nikki Haley saying they now intend to vote for Trump. Meanwhile, 69% of voters in the seven swing states say they support higher taxes on billionaires and those earning more than $400K per year.³
• Polling followed Biden's March 7 State of the Union address, though responses showed voters remain pessimistic about the economy, and that Trump has maintained leads of 5 points or more in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.⁴
• Earlier reports had suggested that US voters are not particularly keen on a Biden-Trump contest, with trends suggesting that the election will once again be a tight match.⁵
• Nearly half of Biden's voters say that their decision is more about stopping Trump than positively supporting Biden, while less than 30% of Trump supporters say that their top priority is preventing a second Biden term.¹

Sources: ¹Bloomberg, ²The Hill, ³Morning Consult Pr, ⁴Axios and ⁵Yahoo News.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by PJ Media. Donald Trump continues to lead Joe Biden in the vast majority of polls, both nationally and in key swing states, as voters across America wake up to Biden's terrible record on the economy, immigration, and national security. While the Democrat-allied media will attempt to generate some enthusiasm for Biden by claiming that he is catching up to Trump, the truth remains that the Democrats' only hope in November is to engage in more shenanigans. The people are tired, and there's no way Joe Biden will win if there's a fair election.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by Intelligencer. Joe Biden's re-election path may appear difficult, but several factors play in his favor, not least improvements in the economy and the Democratic party's performance in the recent elections. Most importantly, Trump is still facing a litany of legal issues that are yet to be resolved. Voters' “social desirability” bias is bound to play against Trump, especially if he is convicted in any of the many cases he is battling right now.

Predictions