Polls: Biden Approval Numbers Still Low Amid Middle East War

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Facts

  • An ABC News/Ipsos poll has found that 54% of those polled disapprove of US President Joe Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war as well as other issues. Biden's numbers have slipped both for crime and climate change since the last ABC News/Ipsos poll in January.1
  • In addition, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, conducted on Oct. 11, found that approximately 65% of the US population believes that the country should publicly support Israel in its war against Hamas. 44% of those polled how Biden has managed the conflict so far (including 77% of Democrats); those polled are also twice as likely to 'strongly disapprove' than to 'strongly approve' of Biden's overall performance.2
  • Lee M. Minirngoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, stated that the results showed Israel was 'clearly winning' within the US 'court of public opinion.'3
  • In addition, another Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,003 US adults found that 94% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans concurred with the phrase, 'American diplomats should actively be working on a plan to allow civilians fleeing fighting in Gaza to move to a safe country.' This poll also suggested stronger support for Israel than in the past.4
  • In the past several years, the Democratic Party has experienced internal friction between pro-Israel moderates and some progressives more critical of Israel — especially regarding the the Palestinians and location of Jewish settlements.5

Sources: 1ABC News, 2PBS NewsHour, 3The Hill, 4Reuters and 5Al Jazeera.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by New York Post. As the conflict simmers in the Middle East, a whopping 78% of Americans think the country is moving in the wrong direction. Biden's polling is extremely weak as the 2024 election begins to ramp up — the GOP has the momentum to take back the White House and help restore global stability.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by The Guardian. President Biden has been talking an extraordinary tightrope — expressing full support for Israel, advocating for humanitarian solutions in Gaza, and forging a long-term regional solution while distancing himself from the undemocratic aspects of the Netanyahu regime. This is an extraordinarily complex conflict and only time will tell if Biden's deft and wise navigations of these waters can translate to votes as 2024 approaches.

Predictions