Poll: Trump Leads Popular Vote, Trails in Key Battleground States

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Facts

• The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, released on Tuesday, found that former Pres. Donald Trump has a two-point popular vote advantage over incumbent Joe Biden, 38% to 36%, in a hypothetical 2024 head-to-head rematch at the ballot box.¹
• This lead would be widened to five points in the event of a third-party candidacy by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., according to the survey, as the independent presidential hopeful would drop Trump and Biden's vote shares to 36% and 31%, respectively.²
• Conducted online from Dec. 5 to 11 with 4,411 US adults nationwide, the poll showed a lack of enthusiasm among Americans at a potential Biden-Trump contest. About 60% of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the two-party system and wanted a third option.³
• Yet, the results also offer hope for Biden as the Republican frontrunner trails him by four points among likely voters in the seven most closely fought states in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.⁴
• If Trump secures the GOP nomination as expected, he would need to win over three states he lost in the past presidential election to retake the White House. While he could pick up 31 electoral votes with a swing of a few hundred thousand voters in Georgia and Michigan, he would still need a further seven to reach 270.⁵
• Reuters/Ipsos also found that roughly one-third of Republican voters wouldn't vote for Trump if a jury convicts him of a felony before Nov. 5, 2024. He currently faces four criminal trials related to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election and mishandling of classified documents.⁶

Sources: ¹The hill, ²FOX News, ³Reuters, ⁴Forbes, ⁵CNN and ⁶The messenger.

Narratives

• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Washington examiner. Biden is on a rapid decline while Trump is on the upswing. This poll — like a sea of others — shows Democrats still don’t understand their voters’ desires, let alone the resurging significance of Trump's base. And Democrats should be even more concerned if a third-party candidate stays in the race until the end.
• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by New York Times. Although it’s scary to imagine Trump’s return to the White House, these recent surveys — almost a year out from the election — don’t reflect a resounding Trump win and their predictions are easily avoided. Biden may take a hit if certain non-White younger voters decide not to vote, but all he has to do is motivate the traditional Democratic base, and his second term will be safe.

Predictions