Poll: Trump Leads Harris Among Arab Americans

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Facts

  • An Arab News/YouGov poll released on Monday found that former Pres. Donald Trump is leading his Democratic opponent, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, among Arab Americans, 45% to 43%.[1][2][3]
  • Green Party candidate Jill Stein polled third at 4%, with 6% still undecided and another 2% not revealing their preference. 500 Arab American voters were surveyed nationwide late last month, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.93%.[1][4]
  • The poll also found that Trump is more trusted than Harris, 39% to 33%, to successfully resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict despite being seen as more supportive of the current Israeli government, and to handle the economy, 47% to 41%.[2][5][6]
  • Earlier this month, an Arab American Institute poll showed Trump and Harries virtually tied in this demographic, 42% to 41%, and the Republican nominee leading by four points, 46% to 42%, among likely voters.[7][8]
  • Arab Americans have consistently favored Democrats in past elections and are seen as critical to Harris due to their high concentration in 'Blue Wall' swing-state Michigan, but Trump has capitalized on their frustration with the Biden administration.[4][7][9]

Sources: [1]Newsweek, [2]The Hill, [3]Breitbart, [4]Al Jazeera, [5]Arab News, [6]Semafor, [7]Arab American Institute, [8]Forbes and [9]Associated Press.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Detroit Free Press. Arab Americans may be disappointed with the Biden administration over its response to the war in Gaza, but nothing justifies sitting out this election or wasting the vote on a third-party candidate — let alone voting for Trump. This is the most consequential election in US history, and Arab Americans have no choice but to vote for Kamala Harris.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. Arab Americans are aware that a vote for Harris is a vote for the Biden-Harris administration, so they are now supporting Trump. This shift began some years ago as the community found common ground with conservatives against woke culture in schools, and has since gained momentum as they have realized America First is good for all Americans.

Predictions