Poll: Socialists' Lead Grows in Portugal Ahead of March Election

Improve the News Foundation -

Facts

  • A new Intercampus poll for Correio da Manhã and Jornal de Negócios, released Tuesday, found that the Portuguese Socialist Party (PS) has expanded its lead ahead of the country’s snap general election of March 10, though projects it is still far from forming a majority in parliament.1
  • Conducted between Jan. 16-20, the survey's 637 responses indicate that the PS has grown its support from 25.4% to 26.4% over the last month, while the second-placed center-right Democratic Alliance — which includes the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the conservative CDS-PP — polled at 20.8%.1
  • Meanwhile, support for the anti-establishment, right-wing Chega (Enough) party has increased from 11.6% to 16.6%. The Left Bloc, the right-wing Liberal Initiative, and the Communists stand at 7.4%, 5.4%, and 3.9%, respectively.2
  • These polls suggest the Portuguese right could secure a narrow advantage over any potential left-wing coalition if the Democratic Alliance joins forces with the Liberal Initiative as well as Chega, though PSD leader Luís Montenegro has ruled out joining with the latter. Though 14.5% of respondents are still undecided, 95% said they would vote.3
  • According to Politico's Poll of Polls — last updated Dec. 21 — parties comprising the Democratic Alliance had a one-point lead over the Socialist Party alone (29% to 28%) with Chega polling at 15%, the Left Bloc at 8%, and the Initiative Liberal at 7%. The Communists, as well as two parties affiliated with the European Greens, stood at 3%.4
  • The early election was called in November, following the unexpected resignation of Socialist Prime Minister António Costa over alleged government corruption related to lithium exploration concessions in northern Portugal, hydrogen production, and a data-center project. Costa denies wrongdoing.5

Sources: 1Voice of Europe, 2Reuters, 3Portugal Resident, 4POLITICO and 5Bloomberg.

Narratives

  • Left narrative, as provided by The Portugal News. Democracy will be on the ballot on March 10, as the only way to prevent Portugal from losing its hard-fought political stability and becoming hostage to the far right is to elect a socialist government. This unnecessary snap election, which was surprisingly called given the President of the Republic understood that the parliamentary majority had no right to propose a new prime minister, represents a huge risk to the nation's democracy.
  • Right narrative, as provided by Sul Informação. The Socialists have now caused major political turmoil in Portugal for a third time, and current behavior amounts to fear-mongering over a potential coalition between the center-right alliance and Chega. Even if conservatives come to win the popular vote and fail to form a majority in parliament, there's no possibility of joining forces with Chega.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Europeanconservative. Voters across Europe are fed up with the globalist establishment and are telling their leaders that enough is enough. This is why Chega is soaring to unforeseen heights despite the elite on both sides of the political aisle smearing Chega as “extreme.” As many are now ready to stand up for their sovereignty and against Portugal's corrupt two-party political establishment, Chega is capable of achieving a unprecedented victory in March.