Poll Shows Trump Winning Electoral College, Losing Popular Vote to Biden

Facts

• The latest Stack Data Strategy poll, published Monday and conducted between Oct. 13 and Nov. 3, shows former US Pres. Donald Trump defeating Pres. Joe Biden in the Electoral College vote by a margin of 292-246.¹
• In the popular vote, however, Biden — who in 2020 defeated Trump 51.3% to 46.8% and 306-232 in the Electoral College — still leads 49% to 47.8%. But Trump leads in battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — states he lost in 2020.²
• The poll also shows Biden would defeat Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a candidate for the GOP nomination, 359-179. But Trump would defeat Vice Pres. Kamala Harris 311-227 and Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom 319-219.²
• In a hypothetical Newsom vs. Trump matchup, the poll showed the governor losing Maine, Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire — all states Biden won in 2020. Meanwhile, Harris was projected to lose to Trump overall but was able to take Maine and Nevada.³
• These results come after a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump defeating Biden in six of seven battleground states regardless of whether a third-party candidate was in the race, with Trump leading in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina in that poll.⁴
• This polling also comes after Democrats recently secured several state-wide wins, including Ohioans voting for a constitutional amendment codifying abortion rights and Virginians giving full legislative control to the party.¹

Sources: ¹Forbes, ²New York Post (a), ³Newsweek and ⁴New York Post (b).

Narratives

• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by The New York Times. Although it’s scary to imagine Trump’s return to the White House, these recent surveys — a year out from the election — don’t reflect a resounding Trump win and their predictions are easily avoided. Biden may take a hit if certain non-White younger voters decide not to vote, but all he has to do is motivate the traditional Democratic base, and his second term will be safe.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. Biden is on a rapid decline while Trump is on the upswing. This poll — like a sea of others — shows Democrats still don’t understand their voters’ desires, let alone the resurging significance of Trump's base. And Democrats should be even more concerned if a third-party candidate stays in the race until the end.

Predictions