Poll: RFK Jr. Leads Trump, Biden Among Young Americans in Swing States

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Facts

  • A new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found that, among registered young voters, independent US presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds greater electoral support in swing states than former Pres. Donald Trump and current Pres. Joe Biden.1
  • Overall, polling, taken from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, found that 24% of the 3,662 respondents across six states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — were leaning towards Kennedy, compared to 33% in favor of Biden, and 35% in favor of Trump.2
  • 34% of 18 to 29-year-olds claimed that they were leaning towards Kennedy — a five-point lead over Trump and a four-point lead over Biden. Kennedy (31%) also held a one-point lead over both Trump and Biden within the age 30 to 44 category.2
  • In total, for voters under 45 within the six states, Kennedy sat 32%, followed by Biden at 30%, and Trump at 29%. The results coincide with a study conducted by Quinnipiac University, where Kennedy (38%) led Biden (32%) and Trump (27%) among respondents aged between 18-36.3
  • Of those who supported Kennedy, 46% claimed that they would definitely or probably support Trump in a two-way race against Biden, while 39% offered support to the current president.4
  • Polling shows Trump to be ahead of Biden within five out of the six of the battleground states while also finding that — despite leading Biden — the former president would sit eight points behind a hypothetical unnamed generic Democratic nominee in the 2024 election.5
  • Last month, Kennedy announced his intention to run as an independent candidate, having previously sought to claim the Democratic nomination off of incumbent candidate Joe Biden.6

Sources: 1FOX News, 2The New York Times, 3Rolling Stone, 4New York Post, 5Yahoo News and 6BBC News.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by MSNBC. Kennedy is a clear favorite for voters who lack any appetite for either Trump or Biden. Holding the dynastic name and its associated glory, America's polarized environment has become the perfect opportunity for Kennedy to present himself as the rightful beneficiary of the alternative vote against the establishment parties. While it's unlikely that strong polling will transform into real votes in 2024, the surprising strength of his campaign highlights the discontent many hold towards the current state of the political system.
  • Narrative B, as provided by The Suffolk Journal. Those who are showing polling support for Kennedy lack true support for the independent candidate. An outcast of his family dynasty, Kennedy merely holds current popularity due to his position as an independent rather than any agreement over his radical ideology. Holding a hypocritical and often dangerous belief system, there should be little worry within the Trump and Biden camps that support for Kennedy will grow any further than current data places the independent at.

Predictions