Poll: Major Partisan Divides on US Election Fairness

Facts

• A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll released on Thursday found that 46% of registered Republicans have no confidence that 2024 US election ballots will be accurately counted — a figure that rises to 52% among Trump supporters; only 14% of Republicans are 'very' confident that the election will be fair.¹
• Conversely, roughly four in five Biden voters expressed high confidence about the returns, while just 3% are 'not confident.' Regarding the 2020 elections, two-thirds of those in support of Trump claimed that Biden hadn't been legitimately elected, while 82% of third-party supporters and 98% of Biden voters consider him the legitimate president.²
• The poll, which surveyed 1K registered voters across the country between Dec. 26 and 29, also showed that around 83% of overall Americans share concerns over the future of democracy in the US. Respondents were split at 40% each when asked which party was to blame for threatening democracy.³
• The greatest specific threats worrying those polled include the GOP frontrunner and former Pres. Donald Trump at 18%. Meanwhile, one in ten registered voters named governmental corruption and dysfunction, and 8% cited immigration and border issues.³
• Ahead of the third anniversary of Jan. 6, the new poll found that attitude toward those who participated in the Capitol riots has softened, with the percentage calling them 'criminals' plunging from 70% to 48%. However, those who said that Trump bears significant blame for the riot have fallen only 5% — from 48% to 43%.²
• In the survey, Trump holds a tight, one-point lead over Biden — 44% to 43% — in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, and a two-point lead — 39% to 37% — when asked about a third-party option.¹

Sources: ¹FOX News, ²USA Today and ³The Hill.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by Washington Post. Despite Trump's complaints about 2020 and his subsequent indictments, the former president has — even within Democrat-appointed courts — been treated fairly. In his classified documents case in Florida, under the oversight of one of his own appointees, Trump has even benefitted from a seemingly purposeful slow-walking of the legal process to ensure his trial doesn't finish before the election. All in all, the only reason Trump supporters may feel distressed about 2024 is due solely to his accelerating, polarizing, and authoritarian rhetoric.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Townhall. Whatever happened in 2020 is over, so now Republicans, as Democrats successfully did in 2020, need to build an impenetrable get-out-the-vote campaign long before the November election. The GOP has already built a website to show voters when, where, and how to apply for and submit absentee ballots. Thanks to the Democrats, America no longer has an election day but rather a long and toxic election season. Like it or not, the key to winning the White House and Congress is now playing by the left's unfair new rules and showing the true popularity of populist conservative policies.

Predictions