Poll: Harris Leading by 1 Point Over Trump
In a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday of voters in seven swing states, US Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead, 48-47% — besting the two-point deficit that Pres. Joe Biden had last month before he dropped out of the race against former Pres. Donald Trump....
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Facts
- In a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday of voters in seven swing states, US Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead, 48-47% — besting the two-point deficit that Pres. Joe Biden had last month before he dropped out of the race against former Pres. Donald Trump.[1]
- Although the gap in all seven states is within the poll's statistical margin of error, Harris, who has been the likely Democratic nominee for a little more than a week, leads in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump leads in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The candidates are tied in Georgia.[1]
- Meanwhile, a new survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted after Biden's withdrawal shows close to 80% of Democrats would be somewhat or very satisfied if Harris is their nominee, compared to about 40% who said the same before Biden decided to step aside.[2]
- Also this week, election analyst and statistician Nate Silver's latest election forecast model shows Trump with a 61.3% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Harris' chances at 38.1%. But Harris has improved on Biden's chances, which were 26.9% on the day he withdrew.[3]
- This comes after a new ABC News/Ipsos poll was released Sunday showing 88% of Democrats are very or somewhat enthusiastic about Harris as the party nominee. Enthusiasm for Trump is at 82% among Republicans.[4]
Sources: [1]Bloomberg, [2]Associated Press, [3]Newsweek and [4]Ipsos.
Narratives
- Democratic narrative, as provided by MSNBC. The Vice President is an extremely electric person and a dynamic leader, so it's no surprise her popularity is on the rise. She has the type of ideas that will move the US forward. An excited Democratic voter base is uniting around Harris at the same time Republicans and the Trump campaign are trying to distance themselves from Project 2025, which is the basis for most of their platform.
- Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. Harris should enjoy her honeymoon with voters while it lasts. Soon enough the electorate will come to terms with how closely aligned Harris is with Biden's failed policies and how dangerously liberal her record was prior to becoming the vice president. The fundamentals of this election haven't changed much since the Democrats' change in candidate, and Trump is still in pole position.
