Poll: Haley Narrows Trump Gap to Single Digits in New Hampshire

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Facts

• The latest CNN/University of New Hampshire poll found that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has closed the gap with former Pres. Donald Trump in the GOP primary race in New Hampshire to seven percentage points, 39% to 32%, with two weeks to go until the vote.¹
• She has gained 12 points since the previous survey in the second-in-the-nation primary state, which was released in November. Haley has grown popular especially among ideologically moderate and independent voters after Republican Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed her.²
• The other Republican candidates lag far behind in the New Hampshire poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in third with 12%, followed by biotech businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5%, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at less than one percent.³
• However, in the latest USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll, which also found Haley is in second and gaining ground in New Hampshire ahead of the Jan. 23 primary as she continues to consolidate the 'not-for-Trump' vote, the former president holds a 20-point lead over the former UN ambassador, 46% to 26%.⁴
• While the former survey was conducted online on Jan. 4-8 with 914 Republican voters, the latter was conducted on Jan. 3-7 via live telephone interviews with 491 GOP voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 points and 4.4 points, respectively.⁵
• According to the RealClearPolitics average, Haley is also polling second in South Carolina, her home state and another key primary state, and is tied with DeSantis behind Trump in Iowa ahead of its Jan. 15 caucus.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²Forbes, ³The Hill, ⁴USA Today, ⁵The Washington Times and ⁶Daily Caller.

Narratives

• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by Post and Courier. It's no mystery that Haley will face an uphill battle to defeat Trump on the path to the GOP nomination for the White House, but her chances are growing by the day. If she is able to finish second in Iowa, to win in New Hampshire and, at least, to claim a close second in South Carolina, then she will become the only viable alternative to Trump — and there lies the key to her victory.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Breitbart. Though a very specific hypothetical scenario in the first three Republican primaries would indeed trigger a race between Trump and Haley, as of today, the former president has double-digit leads over Haley in Iowa, New Hampshire, and even in her home state of South Carolina. Given that those who know her better don't want Haley to win the nomination, Republican primary voters won't make such an error. The GOP nomination still projects to be a cakewalk for the former president.

Predictions