Poll: Haley Makes Gains in New Hampshire, Still Trails Trump

Facts

• A new CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday shows former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has gained ground in the New Hampshire Republican primary polls against frontrunner Donald Trump. Now standing at 29%, Haley is 15 points behind the former president; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received 11% and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie took 10%. ¹
• The polling, which also shows entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at 1%, comes a little more than a month before the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary, which will take place just eight days after the nation's first primary caucus in Iowa. ²
• This poll, which surveyed 855 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5%, also gave Haley the highest likeability rating in New Hampshire with 55%, compared to 37% for DeSantis and 36% for both Trump and Ramaswamy. Haley was described as reasonable by 51% of voters, compared to 37% and 36% for DeSantis and Trump, respectively.³
• However, New Hampshire's voters placed Trump at the top concerning who they thought was a "strong leader" and who they thought "would beat" Democratic Pres. Joe Biden. For "strong leader," Trump received 55%, compared to DeSantis' 45% and Haley's 41%. On who would beat the current president, Trump received 51%, Haley took 32%, and DeSantis received 27%.⁴
• Regarding Iowa, the CBS poll put Trump at 58%, DeSantis at 22%, and Haley at 13%. This coincides with the GOP national polling, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP), putting Trump ahead of his opponents with 61.9%, DeSantis with 20%, and Haley in third place with 15.8%. ³
• Meanwhile, a recent Fox News poll released numbers on potential general election matchups, with Haley defeating Biden by 6%, Trump winning by 4%, and DeSantis tying the incumbent president; Biden was narrowly leading all three of them as recently as August. The Fox poll showed 14% of Biden voters switching to Haley and 5% switching to Trump.⁵

Sources: ¹The Hill, ²Market Watch, ³New York Post, ⁴CBS News, and ⁵Fox News.

Narratives

• Anti-Trump narrative, as provided by National Review. The polling in Iowa shows about half of Trump’s supporters are still willing to change their minds. That fact, alongside Haley’s rise in New Hampshire, means if Trump underperforms in Iowa, Haley could gain momentum heading to the Granite State, where a win could launch her toward more success as the primary season continues.
• Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by Human Events. Take all the polls you want, Trump already has this nomination in the bag. Neoconservatives like Haley have failed time and again to overtake Trump but national polls show them losing percentage points to the GOP frontrunner. If all these so-called conservatives truly wanted their party to win, they would acknowledge Trump’s insurmountable lead and put their weight behind him as the nominee.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 4% chance that Haley will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.