Poll: Conservatives Set to Gain Over Greens in Swiss Election

Facts

• A new poll released ahead of Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Switzerland has shown the right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party (SVP) is solidifying its position as the country's largest parliamentary group, while the Green Party are projected to lose the most seats.¹
• The Sotomo research institute released the results of a final poll suggesting the SVP will gain 2.5 percentage points to earn 28.1% of the vote and that the Green Party will lose 3.5 percentage points, slipping to 9.7%.²
• Switzerland’s Green Party is one of Europe's many environment-oriented outfits that have struggled to maintain their voter base amid political tumult. It reached a political high in 2019 but now, polls suggest, could lose more than half the support it gained from 2015 to 2019.³
• While climate change remains important to 36% of poll respondents, results indicated that voters are most concerned with the rising cost of living and migration, amid conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.²
• SVP MP Christian Imark has predicted that immigration, in addition to “energy security and the increase of energy cost,' will be significant in driving his party’s gains. The Social Democrats — polling at 18.3% — are also set to make gains in Switzerland’s 200-seat National Council.⁴
• Sunday's race for 3rd place will likely come down to the Centre Party and the Liberal Party, which each hold roughly 14% of the vote according to pollsters.³

Sources: ¹Bloomberg, ²Reuters, ³SWI SwissInfo.ch and ⁴The Guardian.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by BNN Breaking. The SVP's projected lead in the impending parliamentary polls shows that the Swiss have had enough of Left-wing policies bleeding their country dry, causing health insurance premiums to skyrocket, and opening the border to dangerous immigrants. Despite the usual and inaccurate cries of “xenophobia,” the SVP won't back off its fight for sovereignty. While mainstream media demonizes conservatives, the people are backing the SVP.
• Left narrative, as provided by Le Monde. Just like other European Right-wing parties, the SVP is stoking fear and hatred, demonizing immigrants, and denying science to gain power. It is in a culture war with the so-called “woke” media and making bad-faith arguments to downplay climate change. Like many countries recovering from the pandemic, Switzerland's financial vulnerability is opening the door to divisive demagogues. The SVP may win Sunday's election, but it is not a legitimate force for good.