Poland: Ukraine Border Blockade Continues

Facts

• As the dispute over Ukrainian grain continues to sour relations between Ukraine and Poland, Polish farmers and truck drivers continued their blockade of the country's border with Ukraine at Dorohusk on Monday.¹
• United Village, a Polish farmers association, said they joined the blockade due to "the tragic situation on the Polish market caused by the uncontrolled influx of grain from Ukraine, the lack of prospects for improving the situation in the 2023 harvest and the lack of systemic solutions to protect the domestic market."¹
• The issue erupted in September when Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly accused a number of countries of playing into Russia's hands by imposing unilateral blockades on Ukrainian grain imports. Then-Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki told Zelenskyy "never to insult Poles again." Later that month, Poland halted all weapons deliveries to Ukraine.²
• The EU has since relaxed rules on Ukrainian grain imports into the bloc, prompting further anger from Polish grain producers and suppliers. As a result, a number of blockades on Poland's border with Ukraine began in early November.³
• Last Monday, Wojciech Sawa, head of the Dorohusk municipality, ordered the dispersal of the blockade in his region, citing reasons of "significant danger to property" and "blocking traffic." The participants were given15 minutes to decide their next steps, and Polish and Ukrainian officials soon confirmed that the blockade had been lifted.⁴
• But later in the week, a regional court struck down Sawa's ban on the blockade. Judges ruled that his government had misrepresented the threat of greater property damage, adding that the blockade could legally resume from Monday.⁵

Sources

Sources: ¹Ukrainska Pravda, ²Al Jazeera, ³UKRINFORM, ⁴European Pravda, and ⁵Ukranews.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by European Pravda. With a new government now in power in Poland, that being of Donald Tusk and his coalition of four parties, relations between Ukraine and Poland will hopefully be restored to previous levels. Due to Tusk's closeness with the EU, the grain dispute should now be able to be resolved more swiftly.
• Narrative B, as provided by Notes From Poland. While Poland remains a strong and close ally of Ukraine, Poland's support for the country cannot come at the expense of its own farmers and entrepreneurs. Poland is committed to working with Ukraine in order to find an optimal solution for both countries.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There is a 1% chance that Poland and Ukraine will settle the Przewodów incident before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.