Poland: Donald Tusk to Become Prime Minister

Facts

• Donald Tusk is set to become Poland's new prime minister after successfully being nominated by the Polish parliament on Monday evening. He will address the chamber on Tuesday before being sworn in alongside Poland's new coalition government by President Duda on Wednesday.¹
• This follows a failed vote of confidence by current Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki earlier in the day, which came after his Law and Justice (PiS) Party failed to win a majority in the country's October elections.²
• While PiS, which ruled for eight years, saw itself remain the largest party in Poland following the country's October election, earning 35.4% of the vote from a record 74.4% turnout, support saw an 8.2% drop from 2019, and the party's total of 194 was not enough to form a majority within the 460-seat lower chamber of parliament.³
• The vote of confidence within Poland's lower chamber of parliament saw 190 in favor of Morawiecki, and 266 voting against the current prime minister. Three members chose not to vote.⁴
• Polish President Andrzej Duda had awarded Morawiecki the first opportunity to form a new government due to the party's largest share of the popular vote, with PiS' proposed cabinet sworn in two weeks ago.⁵
• Tusk is the leader of the Civic Coalition, which has agreed, in theory, to govern with the Third Way and the Left. Tusk previously served as Polish prime minister between 2007 and 2014, as well as being president of the European Council.⁶
• The Civic Coalition (KO) won 30.7% of the vote in October, gaining 157 seats. The Third Way held 65 seats after winning 14.4% of the vote, and the Left, an alliance between Poland 2050 and Polish People's Party, received 26 seats in the lower chamber after taking 8.6% of the vote.³

Sources: ¹BBC News (a), ²Reuters, ³Politico, ⁴Sejm rzeczypospolitej polskiej, ⁵Notes from poland and ⁶BBC News (b).

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Ft.com. The likely return of Tusk to the wheel of Polish politics is a sign of relief to Europe and the EU following eight years of hard-right governance. Having become a thorn in the side of the European project, Poland has a chance to recover and regain its role as a key state within the continent. Bordering Ukraine, the return of normality to Warsaw is an enormous boost to the region, ensuring greater strength against ill-intended actors.
• Narrative B, as provided by Washington post. Despite vowing to bring Poland back from the brink of relations with the EU, the prime minister-to-be will have a hard time juggling the plethora of ideologies found within his wide-reaching coalition. Despite having been given the first opportunity to form a government, the numbers meant that Morawiecki was always destined to fail. Time will only tell if Tusk can maintain stability in Poland, and it remains to be seen whether this will lead to a realignment of recent policies.
• Narrative B, as provided by Europeanconservative. Despite vowing to bring Poland back from the brink of relations with the EU, the prime minister-to-be will have a hard time juggling the plethora of ideologies found within his wide-reaching coalition. Despite having been given the first opportunity to form a government, the numbers meant that Morawiecki was always destined to fail. Time will only tell if Tusk can maintain stability in Poland, and it remains to be seen whether this will lead to a realignment of recent policies.