Poland Closes Belarus Border Checkpoint

Facts

• Poland's Interior Ministry on Thursday announced the indefinite closure of the main Bobrowniki-Bierestowica border checkpoint with Belarus starting on Friday at noon, reportedly leaving only two crossing points open along the whole border.¹
• Warsaw also stated that it's considering imposing further sanctions against Belarusian officials allegedly responsible for crackdowns on Poles in the neighboring country.²
• This comes as an eight-year prison sentence given on Wednesday to Polish activist and journalist Andrzej Poczobut on charges of inciting hatred and threatening national security, which Poland claims to be politically motivated.³
• These moves bring tensions between the two countries to a new height, with Belarusian officials arguing that the border decision was irrational and dangerous and designed to 'further aggravate the situation at the border.'⁴
• Poland has provided sanctuary for opponents of Belarus Pres. Alexander Lukashenko, and Warsaw has become one of Ukraine's fiercest supporters in its war with Belarus' main ally Russia.⁴
• Following World War II, the borders in the area were redrawn, and land that used to be Polish territory became part of Belarus. As a result, thousands of ethnic Poles now live in the western region of the country.⁵

Sources: ¹Notes from poland, ²Bloomberg, ³Politico, ⁴Reuters and ⁵Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Washington post. The Lukashenko regime is cracking down on the dissent ripping through Belarus, and the conviction of Andrzej Poczobut — only guilty of fighting for the truth — is just one demonstration of this. More than 35K people have been arrested, many have been beaten, and tens of thousands of others have fled in fear for their lives. Poland, and the West, can't stand by idly amid this repression.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Tass. Ripple effects from the Western-sponsored migration crisis are fueling unrest in Belarus, and the closure of the Bobrowniki-Bierestowica border will only worsen this. In an attempt to thrust its vision of democracy on other nations, the West, particularly the US, has instigated a succession of regional conflicts in the Middle East and Northern Africa, resulting in massive migration flows. Rather than imposing further sanctions, constructive dialogue — as advocated for by Minsk — is the way forward.
• Narrative C, as provided by Hrw. Poland — which touts an open-door policy to Ukrainian refugees — has a history of unlawfully and violently throwing Belarusian migrants back across the border into the hands of an oppressive and cruel regime. This inhumane policy has exacerbated the migrant crisis at the border and is unacceptable for an EU country.

Predictions