Poland: Anti-Govt Protests Erupt Across Warsaw

Facts

  • On Sunday, an estimated half a million Poles marched through central Warsaw to protest against the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party in the biggest demonstration since the fall of communism in 1989.1
  • Held on the 34th anniversary of the landmark election that ended communist rule in Poland, the protests were organized by Donald Tusk, former prime minister and present leader of his Civic Platform (PO) party.2
  • The protesters, waving Polish and EU flags, reportedly marched against a new law — which establishes an ad hoc commission to investigate "undue Russian influence" in Polish politics — they claim is undermining Poland's democracy.3
  • Approved by Pres. Andrzej Duda last week, the commission can ban government officials from assuming public office for ten years if they "acted to the detriment of the interests of the Republic of Poland" between 2007 and 2022.4
  • Facing condemnation from the opposition — which claims the law is a government attempt to persecute political opponents — as well as the US and the EU, Duda announced on Friday that he would propose amendments to the legislation.5
  • Apart from the controversial law, the marchers were also reportedly anguished at the rising cost of living, alleged limits on women's and LGBT rights, skyrocketing inflation, the perceived erosion of democratic institutions, and the EU's diminishing influence on Poland.6

Sources: 1Guardian, 2POLITICO, 3BBC News, 4Euronews, 5Al Jazeera, and 6BOL News.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Atlantic. Fearing a loss of power in the upcoming elections, the PiS is seeking to subordinate the judiciary to elected politicians and promote culture wars to divide the nation again. The ad hoc, parliament-appointed commission will be able to break legal protections, reverse administrative decisions, and unilaterally cancel contracts on vague allegations of Russian influence. This is an attack on democracy.
  • Narrative B, as provided by TVP World. Given its controversial nature, the Polish government had swiftly prepared a series of provisions to regulate or amend the most contentious issues in the legislation. As the proposed amendments, released on Friday, include barring the commission from banning politicians from public office, Sunday's protests were nothing but a march of hate.

Predictions

Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections?
Showing the aggregate of 14 community forecasts as of Jun 08, 2023.