Pipeline Linking Finland and Estonia Damaged, 'External Activity' Suspected

Facts

• The Finnish government announced Tuesday that an undersea gas pipeline and telecom cable connecting Finland and Estonia had been damaged. Finland stated that it may have been the result of a deliberate act.¹
• Finnish and Estonian gas system operators shut the Balticconnector pipeline down after noticing an unusual drop in pressure on Sunday. Finnish PM Petteri Orpo cited a preliminary assessment to suggest it wasn't the “result of normal use of the pipe or pressure fluctuations.”²
• Orpo stopped short of calling it an act of sabotage, but did say it was “likely the result of external activity.” Both Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation and Estonian authorities are looking into the damage.³
• The damage to the Balticconnector comes a little over a year after the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines last year. Some Finnish sources speculate that Russia may have caused the latest damage as “retribution” for Finland joining NATO this April.⁴
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday said the alliance will discuss the matter, adding that there will be a “determined” response if a deliberate attack is proven.⁵
• The 48-mile Balticconnector runs from Finland's Inkoo city to the Estonian port of Paldiski. Financed primarily by the EU, the $318M pipeline opened in 2020 and has been Finland's only gas import channel (besides LNG) since it halted Russian imports in May 2022.³

Sources: ¹Reuters (a), ²Associated Press, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴BBC News and ⁵Reuters (b).

Narratives

• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by RBC. Despite Finland and Estonia's reluctance to formally blame Russia for damaging the Balticconnector pipeline, Moscow is clearly responsible. Russia has long been upset with Finland for joining NATO and retribution was in the offing. Moscow may plead innocence but NATO will eventually prove its culpability.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT. While the cause of the Balticconnector leak remains unknown, it seems likely that external activity was at play. Last year Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines were blown up by bad-faith actors, clearly indicating a need to heighten security for such infrastructure. A thorough probe must determine the cause of damage and saboteurs dealt with.

Predictions