Philippines Investigating South China Sea Maritime Accident

Facts

• The Philippine Coast Guard reported that an oil tanker registered under the Marshall Island's flag is suspected to have been involved in an 'accidental collision' that sunk a fishing boat, killing three Filipino fishermen. The president has pledged to fully investigate the maritime collision.¹
• The Coast Guard reported that the fishing boat, FFB Dearyn, was struck at around 4:20 a.m. (local time) on Monday near Scarborough Shoal. Eleven crew members survived the crash and used their service boats to reach land on Tuesday morning, carrying the dead — including the captain — to northern Luzon.²
• Though it was not immediately known whether drowning or collision-related injuries were the cause of death, according to a police report, the collision's 'possible head trauma' is what caused the three fishermen to die.³
• President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on the X social media platform on Wednesday, 'We assure the victims, their families, and everyone that we will exert every effort to hold accountable those who are responsible for this unfortunate maritime incident.'⁴
• The incident occurred in a tense region of the South China Sea, where tensions recently flared after the Philippines claimed to have demolished a 300-meter-long (984 ft) Chinese Coast Guard barrier placed close to the Scarborough Shoal — a prime spot for Philippine fishing boats.⁵
• The South China Sea is one of the world's most vital maritime trade corridors, with trillions of dollars worth of goods transversing it annually. It sea contains overlapping territorial claims between China and several Southeast Asian countries.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²CNN, ³Abc news, ⁴The canberra times, ⁵Al Jazeera and ⁶Radio free asia.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by CNBC. While Philippine authorities are rightly calling for no conclusions to be drawn before their investigation is over, one can't help but wonder whether China was involved. After China illegally stole the economic zone from the Philippines in 2012, the rightful owner recently had to remove a massive Chinese buoy from its waters. It's clear that China is no stranger to violating ocean sovereignty laws.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Radio free asia. Preliminary findings by the PCG indicate that the vessel involved in the accident is a Marshall Islands-registered crude oil tanker, not a Chinese boat. China has had a long history of cooperating in good faith with its neighbors during maritime disasters.

Predictions